ABOUT THE 2ND HALF OF WINTER.... the coming warm up and is winter OVER? Since DEC 20... I have said IT twelve times. Go back and count - WINTER IS NOT OVER. Yet I continue to see some weather weenies insist that I have said that. The term weather weenie is a semi-derogatory term used by meteorologists which is given to a special type of weather hobbyists that seem to have serious issues grasping reality. When I was with the NWS office in wakefield 15+ years ago they used to be this guy who always called up and reported a tornado or Funnel cloud around his location even when the radar showed actually no activity in his area. He was completely harmless just had a very bad grasp of reality. When you get as popular in social media as I have become.. there are always going to get people who will always SPIN what you say. (I am not sure why they do not have the ability to use copy and paste...) For example over the past wee or so when I have talked about what I believe to be upcoming mild period ... even though I have said WINTER IS NOT OVER many times .. there have been several posts from various individuals who counter with Winter is not over. And back in mid DECEMBER when I made the post that this winter was not going to be as bad as what everybody thought it was going to be... again they were numerous comments and posts made that said WINTER IS NOT OVER . The implication is quite clear. Because I dare to talk about a Mild spell in middle of January it means I am somehow cancelling winter. Because I dare to say that this winter is NOT going to as bad as what as some have hyped ...I MUST be saying winter is over. By building a strawman these folks can gleefully proclaim that I busted on something I never said in the event that there is a decent snowstorm in late Jan Feb or March those. ( I did tell ya weenies are kind of goofy). ABOUT 2ND HALF OF WINTER... Over the past few l weeks I have expressed uncertainty as to whether not there was going to be a significant pattern change in the last week of January. I am still undecided about it. On the one hand a lot of the model data over the past two days has turned significantly colder as we move in the last week of January. It **LOOKS** like the the polar vortex is finally going to split and in doing so come south and move out of Northeast Canada. (yay!!) and this in turn will allow the NAO weather pattern to turn into the negative phase which becomes more favorable for East Coast snow storms. But arguing against this is the strong extreme negative values of the QBO and the fact MJO weakening and may not reach phase 8 and 1. (In January and February when the MJO is in those phases the snowstorm potential on the East Coast goes way up). SUMMARY --- I am sorry if you are upset or disturbed by my lack of absolute certainty that the second half the winter is going to feature epic amounts of Cold and monster east coast snowstorms. But I am not the guy who is issuing winter forecasts in July telling and everybody the winter was going to be as severely cold as 1976-77 . Interestingly one would think that given failure of the winter to live up to expectations so far.... that exercising a little caution would be viewed as a positive or wise perspective. But then again we are dealing with weenies.
Posted on: Wed, 14 Jan 2015 17:44:09 +0000
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