ABPW10 PGTW 020100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/020100Z-020600ZJAN2015// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 121.7E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.3N 113.0E, APPROXIMATELY 590 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. THIS AREA IS NOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W, WHICH CLEARLY DISSIPATED OVER NORTHERN BORNEO, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST OF THIS SYSTEM. ANIMATED INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT FORMATIVE, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 012119Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH QUADRANT INTO THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGE INDICATES A DISTINCT CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SHIP OBSERVATIONS TO THE WEST REVEAL NORTH- NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 20 KNOTS, PROVIDING EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION DEVELOPING AS A RESULT OF THE ADJACENT NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DISSIPATED AREA (REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W) IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(1) AND ADDED A MEDIUM AREA IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(2).// NNNN
Posted on: Fri, 02 Jan 2015 02:33:33 +0000
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