ACUS01 KWNS 180101 SWODY1 SPC AC 180058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FROM ERN CO/FAR WRN KS NWD INTO SERN WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE NWD TO ACCOUNT FOR STORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL WY AND THE NRN EXTENT OF THE NEB PANHANDLE AND WRN NEB AS THEY TRACK SSEWD. ELY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO SLY AND STRENGTHEN TO 25-30 KT THIS EVENING...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST UPSCALE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE FOR ONE OR TWO TSTM CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP AND TRACK SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... STORMS THAT HAVE MOVED OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND FAR W TX WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO N-S ORIENTED BROKEN LINES AS INDICATED BY CURRENT TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. A MOIST... MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF WEST TX COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UP TO 40-45 KT WILL FAVOR SEVERE STORMS...SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IN THE LINES. ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED STORMS WILL PERSIST ALONG A NW-SE ORIENTED OUTFLOW ENHANCED BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE PERMIAN BASIN. A DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS UP TO 40 DEGREES...ENHANCING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. FOR THIS REASON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A SWD MOVING MCS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER THE TX HIGH PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN HAVE RESULTED IN A SWD SHIFT OF THE 30 PERCENT SEVERE WIND THREAT AREA. ...SRN LOWER MI INTO NERN OH/NWRN PA/WRN NY... A FEW ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE YET THIS EVENING ACROSS THESE AREAS PRIOR TO THE STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ...NORTH CENTRAL MT... MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UP TO 35 KT WILL SUPPORT A FEW ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS ACTIVITY MOVES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO NORTH CENTRAL MT. ..PETERS.. 06/18/2013
Posted on: Tue, 18 Jun 2013 02:02:56 +0000
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