ACUS02 KWNS 091710 SWODY2 SPC AC 091709 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 PM CDT WED OCT 09 2013 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH ACROSS AZ THEN EJECT NEWD INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. STRONG 12HR HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE ORDER OF 120-150M...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AS EXIT REGION OF SPEED MAX TRANSLATES INTO THIS REGION. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE LEE TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PEAK OF THE HEATING CYCLE AS STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM ERN NM INTO ERN CO BY MID AFTERNOON. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN REGARDING THE PROSPECT FOR MEANINGFUL CAPE...SFC DEW POINTS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE INITIATING REGION ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. WITH SFC TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR 80F ACROSS ERN CO...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BREACHED BY 20Z AND HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED/FORCED ENVIRONMENT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MATURE INTO A HIGH BASED SQUALL LINE THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN KS/NEB DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WHERE A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESIDE...LOWER 50S. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS FORCED LINE OF STORMS UNTIL CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS HOSTILE STRONGLY CAPPED AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL QUICKLY END AS CONVECTION BECOMES ELEVATED ATOP STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF 100 LON. ..DARROW.. 10/09/2013
Posted on: Wed, 09 Oct 2013 17:15:26 +0000
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