ANALYSIS By Ewan Roberts The last time Mesut Ozil visited the Etihad Stadium, he was on the end of both a 6-3 drubbing and a furious, spittle-laden dressing down from Per Mertesacker. Having gifted Manchester City their third goal with his manager’s half-time team talk still ringing in his ears, he later shunned Arsenal’s travelling support to add to the growing suspicion that the Gunners’ club-record signing was not quite the player they had hoped he would be. The former Real Madrid playmaker’s time in north London so far has largely been a tale of unfulfilled pedigree, and an underwhelming, often lethargic maiden campaign has been followed by a frustrating and prolonged spell on the sidelines. In the meantime, Alexis Sanchez, another big-money signing from La Liga, has delivered the electric, talismanic performances that had previously been expected of the £42 million man. Ozil’s return to fitness, then, presents something of a dilemma for Arsene Wenger. The Gunners have only lost one of their last eight games in all competitions and have at last landed on a formula that works, with Santi Cazorla at the heart of the side’s best play - but there appears to be just one central attacking role up for grabs, and Wenger’s most immediate trade-off is to choose either the string-pulling Spaniard or the most expensive player in the club’s history. The German’s previous outings in an Arsenal shirt do little to suggest he should merit that place so soon after a return from injury, but Wenger may be seduced by the new-look Ozil; once lightweight, fragile and tired after the World Cup, he has used his time on the sidelines to, in his manager’s words, “push himself to the limit of what you can absorb physically”. Bigger and bulkier, there are plenty of reasons to be excited by the possibilities of his return to action… WINNERS: SANCHEZ, WALCOTT & CONTROL OF MATCHES Even when Ozil has not been at the peak of his powers – which has, in truth, been a little too often – he has nevertheless offered a large degree of control in matches. “He is an exceptional football player, he always gives you continuity in your game,” explains Wenger. Indeed, Arsenal have more possession, concede fewer shots, enjoy more final- third control (3.1 per cent increase in final-third pass success) and give up fewer goals when the German is on the field compared to when he is absent. Far from being merely a great retainer of the ball – his pass success has only dropped below 80% in one Premier League match – he is also capable of splitting defences with the kind of incisive, low- success, killer balls that Arsenal are often accused of shunning. Unfortunately, it is an ability that has rarely been showcased with Ozil doing little to live up to his ‘King of the Assists’ moniker. One reason for that has been the absence of Theo Walcott, who spent the duration of 2014 recovering from a knee injury, but the former Southampton winger’s blend of on-the-shoulder movement and frightening pace makes him the player most compatible with Ozil. Their respective returns to fitness, and the partnership they might strike up, could be decisive in the second half of the season. Ozil’s great strength is his fiendish through-balls, drifting out wide to thread passes in behind for overlapping wingers and full-backs, but too often he has been bereft of that option – especially at the turn of last year, a period during which he was frequently criticised, but had Cazorla, nominally fielded on the left, dropping deep or coming inside rather than darting behind the defence. Walcott, though, is a different proposition entirely, and one that Ozil ought to relish. Another weapon he can harness is Sanchez, whose eagerness to drive towards goal, commit players and make constant, dangerous runs was exactly what a very side-to-side Arsenal had craved last season. Together, they bring just the right balance of carnage and control, while Ozil’s creativity eases the burden on his Chilean team-mate and allows him to get back to scoring (he found the back of the net 51 minutes more regularly alongside the former Werder Bremen man). Of course, not everyone stands to benefit from Ozil’s return… LOSERS: CAZORLA, GIROUD & SPEED OF PLAY Unquestionably the biggest quandary facing Wenger is who should be sacrificed in order to restore Ozil to the starting XI. In recent weeks he has packed his side full of the players he trusts most and quite how much he feels he can rely on Ozil remains to be seen. Cazorla, meanwhile, has undergone something of a resurgence, scoring or assisting six goals since the end of November and playing more passes than any other player in the Gunners’ last two outings against Stoke (89) and Hull (77). Both players, though, thrive most in a central slot and previous attempts to accommodate the pair in the same line-up, with one moving to the left flank, have largely been unsuccessful. Wenger is unlikely to leave his most expensive asset on the bench, which not only puts Cazorla’s place in the side under serious threat but also the very style of play that has been eking out improving results. The former Malaga maestro has brought a very real sense of busyness and energy to Arsenal’s play, releasing the ball quickly, while Ozil brings a decidedly more leisurely, languid flavour to proceedings. You would imagine he was frequently encouraged to release the ball quicker while at Real Madrid in Jose Mourinho’s counter-attacking powerhouse, but the German’s naturally relaxed, calming tempo is infinitely more Wenger-friendly – though not necessarily for the better. Ozil can be afflicted by a lack of conviction – certainly at the World Cup he played with little of the confidence and swagger displayed by his team- mates – which makes him more cautious, more fearful of playing the killer balls for which he is so noted, and can produce a lot of sterile possession. Fewer risks are taken, with control of the ball improving at the expense of efficiency on it; pass success in the final third increases with Ozil on the pitch, but his team-mates take 10.5% more shots per game without him. There is a tendency for Arsenal to play slower and less direct football when Ozil is on the field, then, and that plays out with Olivier Giroud’s struggles alongside the German. The former Montpellier man’s minutes-per-goal strike rate is over twice as good when Ozil is not present, perhaps a by- product of the increase, albeit marginal, in crosses or his better understanding with Cazorla, whic was on display in all its glory at Anfield. Though not fit enough to play, Danny Welbeck’s run-making and mobility feels a much better fit for Ozil than the more static Frenchman, while Wenger may wonder if, against Manchester City, he can field two players in Ozil and Giroud who have such questionable records in big games. That is not a problem for Cazorla, though, who notably netted in the FA Cup final, and, at least for now, that could mean Ozil is given a watching brief.
Posted on: Fri, 16 Jan 2015 14:00:51 +0000
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