ANALYSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 1300Z 6 MAR 2014 THE ANALYSIS SHOWS ONE North Atlantic (non tropical) Low Pressure Storm One North Atlantic Low Pressure System That Is Located At 27.00 N 87.00 W FOUR Tropical Waves One Tropical wave that is located at 32.00 N 78.00 W to 30.00 N 80.00 W to 30.00 N 84.00 W One Tropical wave that is located at 35.00 N 85.00 W to 33.00 N 87.00 W to 30.00 N 98.00 W One Tropical wave that is located at 37.00 N 93.00 W to 32.00 N 94.00 W One Tropical wave that is located at 19.00 N 88.00 W to 14.00 N 87.00 W GULF OF MEXICO... AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE E CONUS WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER E- CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N89W THROUGH 25N91W TO A BASE OVER THE E PACIFIC NEAR 15N103W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS WRAPPING AROUND THE BASE AND THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JET CUT THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THEN TURNED NNE ACROSS THE BIG BEND/NORTHERN FLORIDA WITH CORE SPEEDS OF 120- 130 KT. THE TROUGH PROVIDED SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE...1008 MB NEAR 28N85W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW NW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE...1006 MB NEAR GAINESVILLE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW NORTHWEST TO NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA. FLOW BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND TROUGH WAS DIFFLUENT AND HAD PROVIDED SUPPORT FOR A SQUALL LINE WHICH MOVED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS NOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. WSR-88D DATA ALSO INDICATED AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA IN PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES OVER MEXICO AND THE W GULF WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MID CLOUDS WERE NOTED W OF THE FRONT AND WERE MOVING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE S SIDE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE OF THE AREA AND INTENSIFY OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC ON FRI. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF EARLY FRI WITH SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUING TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SAT. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W GULF SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WHERE A LINE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM EXTREME NW CUBA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOCAL CONVERGENCE IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WERE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW TOP SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA AND OVER THE NE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A 1422 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH TRADES WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES NOTED ELSEWHERE OF THE CARIBBEAN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND STALL FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS FRI NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS SAT. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED WARM TOP SHOWERS WERE FOCUSED OVER HAITI...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND EASTERN CUBA. 1200 UTC RAWINSONDE FROM SAN JUAN INDICATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP TO 750 MB WITH VERY STRONG CAPPING/DRYING ABOVE THAT LEVEL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE WELL BELOW NORMAL AT 1.07 INCHES. THE DRY AIR WAS REFLECTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH DEPICTED STRONG SUBSIDENCE AMIDST MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE PROXIMITY OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MAY INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AREA ON SAT.
Posted on: Fri, 07 Mar 2014 02:18:14 +0000
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