AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1029 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014 .DISCUSSION... AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW. && .AVIATION... THE MAIN CONCERN IS STRONG WIND. STRONG GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. A FEW GUSTS OF 45 KT ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH 12-24Z NORTH TO SOUTH. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOKC THROUGH 12Z WITH GUSTS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 40 KT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BLDU FOR 1-2 HR MAY OCCUR JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AFTER 00Z. -SN MAY OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 12Z WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES AFTER 00Z. WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. MBS && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014/ UPDATE... WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT MAKING HASTE THROUGH KANSAS...EXPECT IT TO ARRIVE A BIT EARLIER THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALONG WITH A SOONER ARRIVAL...WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT STRONGER AS WELL. THEREFORE...HAVE UPDATED THE HOURLY WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 45 TO 50...POSSIBLY 55 MPH. WILL KEEP CURRENT WIND ADVISORY...AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES. THE OTHER PRIMARY CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONG WINDS...YIELDING WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO DEGREES OVER A LARGE PART OF OKLAHOMA. SHOULD TEMPERATURES COME IN JUST A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST...WIND CHILLS MAY FALL TO 5 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW ZERO...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT ISSUANCE ATTM...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT. OTHER CHANGES TO THE GRIDS INCLUDE UPDATES TO HOURLY TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND SKY GRIDS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014/ DISCUSSION... TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON ON THE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE THE NEXT ARCTIC SURGE ARRIVES. WINDS ALREADY NORTHERLY BEHIND PAC FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AREAS AROUND MID EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD. VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD SURGE AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND COLD WILL DROP WIND CHILL READINGS TO NEAR IN THE NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SOUTH BY SUNRISE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ON MONDAY...SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW WIND ADVY CRITERIA. THE COMBINATION OF CAA AND FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S IN MANY PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. COLD TEMPS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SEWD OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO PARTS OF NWRN OK MONDAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS AS PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME VERY DRY LOW LEVELS TO EVEN MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. MODELS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT WITH INDICATIONS OF A PATTERN SHIFT DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY FLATTENS DURING THE WEEK WITH A TROUGH EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PD BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 19 27 11 30 / 0 10 10 10 HOBART OK 20 29 10 32 / 0 10 10 10 WICHITA FALLS TX 27 35 12 33 / 0 10 10 10 GAGE OK 13 27 8 32 / 10 10 30 10 PONCA CITY OK 13 24 7 30 / 10 10 10 10 DURANT OK 29 34 16 32 / 0 10 0 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR OKZ004>048-050>052. TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ085-086-089-090. && $$ 84/17/17
Posted on: Mon, 27 Jan 2014 04:36:32 +0000