AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 340 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013 .DISCUSSION... STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN KANSAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE A MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY IS VERY HIGH AND WIND SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING FIGHT AGAINST CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AS THE STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST AND DIURNAL HEATING WANES. SO WILL LIKELY SEE STORMS IN THE AREA THIS EVENING /ALTHOUGH THE AREAL COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN/. AFTER MIDNIGHT... STORM CHANCES BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE AREA... ALTHOUGH HOT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL PERSIST IN THE SOUTH. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE LOWERED ENOUGH BEHIND THE FRONT THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE 105 OR BELOW EVEN IN AREAS SOUTHWEST WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE WELL INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS. SO WILL LET THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE AS PLANNED THIS EVENING. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE AS WE SEE HOW THE FORECAST OF POST-FRONTAL DEWPOINTS EVOLVE. BEYOND THIS... THE AREA GENERALLY REMAINS UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOL AND ALSO KEEP AT LEAST SOME STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 76 96 70 90 / 20 10 10 10 HOBART OK 76 104 72 97 / 10 10 20 10 WICHITA FALLS TX 77 105 74 96 / 10 10 10 10 GAGE OK 71 96 67 90 / 20 10 20 10 PONCA CITY OK 75 96 66 90 / 40 10 0 10 DURANT OK 76 100 72 93 / 10 10 10 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052. TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090. && $$
Posted on: Thu, 27 Jun 2013 21:14:04 +0000
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