AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 556 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014 .AVIATION... WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AS STRONG OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS PERSIST BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT WHICH HAS NOW CLEARED ALL BUT THE MLU TERMINAL THIS MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS WITH THE HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAINFALL. WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT TO ALLOW NLY WINDS FROM 8-14 KTS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO WRAP UP FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER ABOUT 03/03Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH AT LEAST MVFR CATEGORIES STILL PRESENT THROUGH 03/12Z. /19/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014/ DISCUSSION... MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION WITH A 30 DEGREE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES COMPARING OUR FAR NW ZONES TO OUR SE ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE NEAR A RUSTON TO LUFKIN LINE AS OF 10Z THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST. PRE AND POST FRONTAL RAIN WAS EVIDENT ON THE RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING AND MUCH MORE POST FRONTAL RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THIS WAY FROM THE WEST. CONCERNING THE WINTER STORM WATCH...IF THERE HAS BEEN ONE TREND IN THE MODELS WITH THIS UPCOMING EVENT...IT HAS BEEN FOR A WARMER TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND QUICKER ENDING TO THE PRECIPITATION. THE WARMER PROFILE MEANS THAT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WE HAD BEEN ADVERTISING APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST NORTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION TODAY/THIS EVENING. HAVING SAID THAT...THERMAL PROFILES STILL SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND BY MIDDAY...THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN TRANSITIONING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...ENCOMPASSING RED RIVER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AS WELL AS SEVIER AND HOWARD COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS THAT ARE NOT ALREADY BELOW FREEZING AND ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN PERHAPS MIXED WITH SOME SLEET BEFORE ENDING QUICKLY. AMOUNTS ARE REALLY CLOSE ACROSS NORTHERN MCCURTAIN COUNTY TO NECESSITATE A WINTER STORM WARNING BUT AMOUNTS IN THE OTHER COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW WARNING CRITERIA...WELL UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ASSUMING FCST TEMP PROFILES HOLD TRUE. THEREFORE...HAVE REPLACED THE WINTER STORM WATCH WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MCCURTAIN COUNTY...SEVIER AND HOWARD COUNTIES WITH THE ADDITION OF RED RIVER COUNTY WITH A VALID TIME OF 12Z THIS MORNING THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. IF AMOUNTS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EXCEED ONE QUARTER ON AN INCH IN MCCURTAIN COUNTY...THEN THE DAY SHIFT CAN MAKE THE UPGRADE TO A WARNING IF NECESSARY. UPPER TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS QUICKLY THIS EVENING BUT THE NEXT TROUGH TAKES ITS PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ON MONDAY. THE FORECAST REGION REMAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WITH ANOTHER TAP OF GULF AND PACIFIC MOISTURE TO COINCIDE WITH INCREASING LIFT MONDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS WARRANTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE VARIETY IN THE EAST AND LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE FOR TUESDAY. A RETURNING WARM FRONT WILL MAKE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY A NIGHTMARE TO FORECAST AND MODEL MOS TEMPS AS A RESULT HAVE SOME LARGE SPREADS. THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR. WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES TO OVERRIDE THE COLDER AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE AND THE RESULT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES WITH MEDIUM RANGE PROGS CONCERNING THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF AMPLITUDE WITH THESE DISTURBANCES...NOT TO MENTION THE THERMAL ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. FOR NOW...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA FOR THE THREAT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION. THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION THIS MORNING FWD...TSA AND LZK. PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 47 33 46 37 53 / 100 60 10 60 70 MLU 53 35 44 38 54 / 100 90 10 40 70 DEQ 38 27 42 35 43 / 100 40 10 60 70 TXK 40 28 43 35 49 / 100 60 10 60 70 ELD 45 31 44 35 48 / 100 90 10 40 70 TYR 40 31 45 37 54 / 100 40 10 60 70 GGG 42 31 45 37 54 / 100 40 10 60 70 LFK 52 35 49 42 58 / 100 40 10 40 70 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051. LA...NONE. OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077. TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096.
Posted on: Sun, 02 Feb 2014 13:52:20 +0000
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