AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 330 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Wednesday Tonight) Issued at 330 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014 A strong storm system will impact the region today and will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area from early this morning through this afternoon, with wrap around showers then persisting across the area through Tuesday then the eastern Ozarks on Wednesday as the system slowly spreads to the east. Today a messy and active day is on tap. An upper level low is currently located over the pan handle of Texas early this morning with an associated area of surface low pressure across central Oklahoma. A weak warm front extends from the surface low across central Oklahoma to the northeast across the northern portions of the forecast area. Elevated storms are currently developing north of the warm front which is generally located along and north of the Highway 54 corridor early this morning. These storms will remain sub severe but a few of the stronger storms could produce up to penny size hail, and with them being elevated in nature any wind risk is very low. As the system lifts to the northeast the front and this convection will spread north of the area by daybreak this morning. The surface low will lift north today and across the area generally really close to the I-44 corridor. A cold front will push east across the area south of the low this morning into this afternoon. A low level jet is spreading to the northeast from Texas, across eastern Oklahoma, through much of Arkansas into southern Missouri early this morning ahead of the upper level low. Scattered convection is currently spreading north across Arkansas as lift from the low and the low level jet spreads north. This activity will spread north into the area early this morning, and a few of the strong storms may be capable of hail to the size of pennies. A line of storms currently across eastern Oklahoma will continue to spread to the east and should expand to the north through the morning into the afternoon as the system spreads east generally along and south of the I-44 corridor. This line of storms will start to affect the area early this morning and will push across south central Missouri this afternoon and out of the area this afternoon. Instability is currently on the weak side across much of the area, but still there is enough to support a wind risk with this line of storms as it spreads east into the area early this morning. Due to the weak instability though, the wind risk will likely be more isolated to scattered along the line then widespread this morning generally west of Highway 65. The line of storms will then push across the eastern Ozarks late this morning into this afternoon and will have to watch to see how much instability can spread into south central Missouri, as there could be some breaks in the convection and maybe clouds ahead of the storms. Depending on how much instability can develop there could be increased instability and an increased wind risk across south central Missouri early this afternoon. Shear will be quite strong with this system and there will be a spin up tornado risk within the line with any surges to the northeast but the main risk with the line will be straight line winds. The greatest instability and severe risk is expected to stay to the south and east of area this afternoon and evening. The storms will push off to the east by late this afternoon. A dry slot will spread into the area behind the line of storms, with more drizzle or light rain possible. Moisture will then wrap around the low and an area of showers will develop across the area behind the front this afternoon into tonight and this rain could be moderate in rate at times. The upper level low will slowly push east across the area Tuesday and Wednesday and some light rain will be possible at times on the back side of the system, and should end by Wednesday night. A widespread 1 to 2 of rainfall is expected with this system and could pose a risk for flooding especially across any areas that can see multiple rounds of storms today. At this time the heaviest rain looks to be fairly progressive in nature and will limit any widespread flooding risk.
Posted on: Mon, 13 Oct 2014 08:33:39 +0000