AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1237 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TODAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT PASSES THROUGH WED...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS. BLUSTERY AND BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THU. MORE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT AND FRI. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1 PM UPDATE... HAVE STEPPED IT UP A NOTCH OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THE FACT THAT LIGHT SNOW HAS OVER- SPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION RESULTING IN A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...IN ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT LIGHT SNOW IS MAKING FOR VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 2 MILES OR LESS AT TIMES. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS THEN TAPERING AS THE CLIPPER LOW PUSHES E OUT TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS INTO N NEW ENGLAND. THE REGION BETWEEN SHOULD BE A FAVORABLE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE THAT SHOULD PUT THE SQUASH ON THE LIGHT SNOW WITH ONLY REMNANT FLURRIES TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CLIPPER LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE DC-AREA. COLLOCATION OF THE NOSE OF THE H85 JET AND ACCOMPANYING ISENTROPIC FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE W-ATLANTIC CONVERGING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LOW BENEATH DECENT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT PARENT WITH THE MAIN MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND LFQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. AS TO THE MOISTURE EXTENT N WITH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW CAN BE SEEN ONGOING WITHIN WSR-88D RADAR RETURNS. THERE IS FAVORABLE Q-VECTOR FORCING BENEATH DIVERGENCE ALOFT LENDING TO BELIEF OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS OUR REGION. BUT RESULTANT SNOWS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AS MAIN AFOREMENTIONED MOIST AXIS REMAINS S AROUND THE VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE S-TIER OF S NEW ENGLAND MAINLY S OF THE MA-PIKE WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SEEING THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF SNOW ALONG THE S-COAST / CAPE COD / ISLANDS. NANTUCKET LOOKS TO BE THE WINNER WITH THIS CLIPPER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEEING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW. NONE OF THE NEAR-TERM HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS HANDLING THE PRESENT SITUATION WELL ENOUGH DUE TO THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE EVENT. LOTS OF HAND WAVING AND FORECAST MODIFICATION TO GO WITH A LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRY EVENT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... TONIGHT... LIGHT SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END FOR MOST OF S NEW ENGLAND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY PRODUCE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW. OVERCAST SKIES WILL INSULATE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BIT...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WEDNESDAY... A STRONG...FAST MOVING ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH S NEW ENGLAND BRINGING UNUSUALLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SQUALLS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS INTO THE -20S WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. IN ADDITION STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SNOW SQUALLS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE WOULD PRODUCE A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND CREATING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. IT IS INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT JUST WHERE THESE WILL OCCUR SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FURTHER REFINED AS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING * CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY DROP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL FRIDAY * MODERATION IN TEMPS INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL
Posted on: Tue, 06 Jan 2015 19:53:04 +0000