AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1020 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT FORECAST IS PRETTY WELL ON TRACK FOR TODAY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014/ AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014/ DISCUSSION... ONE LAST DECENT WEATHER DAY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S UNDER INCREASING CLOUD COVER. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SO THIS MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL ICE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...WITH PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS NOW SEEING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR GREATER THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE EVERYTHING TO RAIN. THE TIMING...TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ONCE IT REACHES THE PLAINS IS BECOMING EVEN MORE MUDDLED AS TIME GOES ON. THE TENDENCY IS FOR A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH MAY RESULT IN IMPACTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM A SOUTHERLY TRACK POTENTIALLY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA...ALA GEM AND ECMWF...TO A PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS YIELDING A STRONGER SYSTEM FAR TO OUR NORTH...ALA UKMET. THE GFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT EITHER OF THESE SOLUTIONS ARE PLAUSIBLE...AS WELL AS JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN...ALA GFS. WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE ON WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL NEXT WEEKEND. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BUT WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$
Posted on: Mon, 29 Dec 2014 19:12:41 +0000
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