AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 737 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013 .UPDATE... DID A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SOME POPS TO NW PORTIONS OF THE FA FOR THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY IN THE PANHANDLES IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. MAXWELL && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013/ DISCUSSION... REFER TO THE 12Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW... AVIATION... WILL BEGIN THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA TO AFFECT SW TAF SITES. STILL...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THAT STORMS WILL IMPACT ANY PARTICULAR SITE...SO WILL INCLUDE ONLY VCSH AT KLAW AND KSPS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STORMS WILL BEGIN ACROSS NW OK AND SHIFT SWD OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO NE WITH THE FRONT. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS AND IFR/LIFR VSBYS FOR A BRIEF TIME. FRONT WILL CLEAR MOST TAF SITES BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013/ DISCUSSION... WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO COME IN JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WARM AND MUGGY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST...THOUGH MODELS DO INDICATE SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SPOTTY. THE MAIN SHOW...AS FAR AS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS IS CONCERNED...WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND LAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT...INITIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY POSE A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FRONT WILL PUSH SWD INTO A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WITH FAIRLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING MAY OCCUR. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S TOMORROW. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END TOMORROW NIGHT. FOR THE WEEKEND...A RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION... BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTIES IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PLACEMENT OF STRONGEST UPPER FORCING LENDS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 91 68 77 56 / 20 80 50 0 HOBART OK 90 67 81 55 / 20 80 50 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 93 71 80 59 / 30 70 60 20 GAGE OK 89 61 80 49 / 40 70 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 92 66 79 54 / 20 100 30 0 DURANT OK 94 72 81 63 / 30 60 100 30 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 25/84
Posted on: Thu, 19 Sep 2013 14:23:23 +0000