AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 526 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014 .AVIATION... STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AFTER 06Z. ANY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AMA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02Z. CIGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY GET DOWN BRIEFLY INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE FOREAST. WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE SOME TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING ON CHRISTMAS EVE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014/ DISCUSSION... FAIRLY ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...BRINGING FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES AND WHAT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST ONE SHOT OF PRECIPITATION. NORTH WINDS HAVE BEEN HOWLING TODAY...AND WILL REMAIN STRONG AT LEAST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LEAVE GOING WIND ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT. OVERALL...THINK WE/VE SEEN THE PEAK GUSTS BUT STILL SEEING SEVERAL SITES GUSTING TO AROUND 50 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE. MOS GUIDANCE DECREASES WIND SPEEDS PRETTY QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS PAINT A LESS OPTIMISTIC PICTURE...WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING CONTINUED STRONG DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET...AND SPEEDS SHOULD FALL BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA BUT IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE THIS EVENING TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AND THUS WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE WIND HEADLINES ATTM. ALONG WITH THE STRONG WINDS...LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS EXPANDED IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING HAS TEAMED WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND ADD A BIT OF CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO SOME OF THE PRECIP. THIS AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL SHRINK AFTER SUNSET...BUT MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOUR BEFORE WEAK FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND TOMORROW...AND WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. RISING HEIGHTS IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DEEP UPPER TROUGH...ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS COMING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST...SHOULD BOOST TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...WHICH CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AHEAD OF A DEEPENING GREAT BASIN LOW WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...LEADING TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WARM AIR ADVECTION VIA THIS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A WARM CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST SPOTS. HOWEVER TEMPS WILL QUICKLY TAKE ANOTHER TUMBLE AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF/GEM HOLDING MORE ENERGY BACK IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...VERSUS THE GFS WHICH EJECTS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WOULD BRING SOME DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW. THUS HAVE INTRODUCED SNOW CHANCES FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT KEPT THEM LOW FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. COOL...PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN LOOK ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND. THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RELOAD OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A 130 KT UPPER JET STREAK DIGS SOUTHEAST ON ITS BACKSIDE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MARKEDLY DRIER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES LOOK MUCH MORE WINTER-LIKE THANKS TO A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE COLDER ECMWF FOR THIS TIMEFRAME GIVEN THE EXPECTED PATTERN. KB FIRE WEATHER... BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON CHRISTMAS DAY...HELPING TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES...SUPPORTING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. KB && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...GRAY...HANSFORD...HUTCHINSON... OCHILTREE...ROBERTS. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM... POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN. OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS. && $$
Posted on: Wed, 24 Dec 2014 00:56:50 +0000
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