AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN KY...WRN WV...AND SRN/CNTRL OH CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 242021Z - 242215Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS IT DEVELOPS EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DISCUSSION...PER 19Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS...HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH ARE LENDING BROAD SUPPORT FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A CENTER OF LOW PRES NEAR FDY...WITH A LOW-TOPPED BROKEN SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING FARTHER TO ITS SOUTH ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. AS OF 1915Z...THESE CELLS WERE GENERALLY ON A HAO-LEX-SME LINE...WITH PRES FALLS OF 2-4 MB PER 2 HR ANALYZED AHEAD OF THE LINE. CURRENTLY...BUOYANCY IS MEAGER WITH MUCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 100-250 J/KG. THIS IS EVIDENT PER THE OVERALL LACK OF OBSERVED LIGHTNING...AS WELL AS DUAL-POLARIZATION DATA INDICATIVE OF A RELATIVE LACK OF MIXED-PHASE REGION ABOVE THE MELTING LAYER IN THE STRONGER CELLS OF THE LINE. NONETHELESS...A FEW POCKETS OF STRONGER INSOLATION DUE TO BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONG SUPPORT FOR ASCENT TO AID IN SOME INCREASE IN DEEPER CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE...INCREASING BACKGROUND FLOW WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOMENTUM FOR TRANSFER TO THE SFC IN ANY STRONGER CELLS. 1950Z VWP DATA FROM LOCAL WSR-88DS INDICATE AROUND 50 KTS OF SSW FLOW AROUND 1 KM AGL. INDEED...KSME REPORTED A GUST TO 53 KTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LINE AT 1915Z. THEREFORE...WHILE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW...MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THE STRONG WIND FIELD ABOVE THE SFC WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THIS SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS EWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 12/24/2014 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN... LAT...LON 37708327 38618383 39678399 40528385 40928347 41458263 41588131 41328070 40108072 39198065 38568077 37408195 37138258 37708327
Posted on: Wed, 24 Dec 2014 20:22:04 +0000
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