AREAS AFFECTED...WV...NRN VA...SRN PA...WRN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 121543Z - 121815Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT MAY GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. DISCUSSION...A SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT TRAVELS EWD ALONG A WARM FRONT OVER SRN PA DURING THE DAY AND ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. TRAILING THE LOW IS A STRONG COLD FRONT WHERE SUBSTANTIAL PRESSURE RISES ARE BEING OBSERVED. MEANWHILE...SWLY WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS ARE CONTINUING TO ADVANCE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR NEWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...AS OF 15Z DEWPOINTS WERE RELATIVELY LOW WITH LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY NOTED ON MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DAMAGING WINDS IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW WHERE FORCING WILL HELP COMPENSATE FOR LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER RADAR ECHOS CURRENTLY OVER SERN OH AS OF 1540Z ARE A REFLECTION OF THIS FORCING. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD TODAY. AREAS FARTHER S ACROSS MAY SEE AN INCREASING THREAT BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EVENTUALLY INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT ACROSS VA INTO THE DELMARVA. ..JEWELL/HART.. 03/12/2014 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL... LAT...LON 39788087 40377920 40467839 40247820 39737841 38427926 37837973 37128052 36918119 36908284 37108322 38138232 39408136 39788087
Posted on: Wed, 12 Mar 2014 15:45:30 +0000
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