ATLANTIC No real significant changes since yesterday. The Atlantic is perking up with clouds and thunderstorms, indicative of the atmosphere being more unstable and moist, i.e. conducive to those clouds and thunderstorms. Models are suggesting that one or the other of those pieces as they move toward a position east of the Bahamas could try to become a more organized tropical or subtropical system later this week into the weekend, but at least for now they show it not reaching North America. There is also currently an eye-catching bunch of stuff in the far southwest Caribbean near Panama, which NHC has begun noting in its tropical weather outlooks. It is moving west and running out of room to further develop on the Caribbean side, but might actually try to do so on the eastern Pacific side later this week. EASTERN PACIFIC The GFS is still up to its tricks, showing a hurricane eventually being in the Gulf of Mexico. How the model is handling it, such as the way it keeps pushing the system back further and further into the longer range, is typical of when it predicts the boguscanes weve been talking about. That having been said, the present uptick in clouds, thunderstorms and instability in the Caribbean and Atlantic, and some other signals out there as we look further into October, suggest that after an exceptionally quiet late September, the atmosphere in this part of the world at least doesnt seem to be completely giving up before the season is over. Wind-wise, Simon is feeble and limping toward the coast on its way to becoming a remnant low. However, tropical moisture in the middle and high part of the atmosphere, much of it associated with Simon, has already flowed up over the southwest U.S., as shown by the milky white appearance in water vapor imagery. (FORECAST: Is Simon a Heavy Rain Threat?) No change from yesterdays expectation, which is for it to bring rain to the desert Southwest the next couple days, not with widespread flooding but with the potential for the localized flash/urban type, then for some of this moisture to infuse into a frontal system over the south-central U.S. later in the week and into the weekend, with heavy rain and possible flooding WESTERN PACIFIC While satellite estimates/images evoke memories of Haiyan/Yolanda, whereas that was near peak intensity when it hit the Philippines, fortunately Vongfong is not near land. It is not likely to be as intense by such time it is, but is expected to still be strong, and so its potency is something that people in its potential path should be aware of. Also,extreme velocities, and the overall size of tropical storm force winds which is not super-gigantic but is not very small either, will be generating waves which will propagate away from the center toward land, and as exemplified by Phanfone and many other cases, that can be very dangerous, for rip currents and/or particularly high single waves which crash onshore. (RECAPS: Phanfones History | Impacts) Models indicate that waves/swell will be increasing already by tomorrow U.S. time in the northern Philippines and Taiwan if not also the southern Japanese islands, and really increase in the latter including Okinawa on Thursday and Friday. Then latest model runs still show a track of the core of the storm over the main islands of Japan, with the center not far from Tokyo, on a second consecutive weekend. One thing to monitor in future model runs along with any more substantive overall track shift is that some of them have been predicting the center to come closer to the southern islands including Okinawa than Phanfones center did, along with a bit of a ridge of high pressure north of the typhoon at that point which would keep the typhoons motion slow and prolong effects in any given place, before Vongfong finally then accelerates up across the main islands. Either slow movement such as that, or interaction with a frontal system, or both, would also result in big amounts of rain again along with the coastal effects and wind. (FORECAST: Typhoon Vongfong) Vongfong has explosively strengthened into an exceptionally intense typhoon; fortunately not currently near land, but will be heading toward it at an expected lower intensity but still potent; dangerous waves will propagate toward land away from the core of the storm - Simons moisture aloft is reaching southwest U.S.; will help make a front in central U.S. very wet - Nothing imminent in U.S. from the other side, however Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf are trying to have a late-season comeback - System developing in Bay of Bengal and could threaten India
Posted on: Tue, 07 Oct 2014 23:23:50 +0000
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