AUD/USD analysis for November 5, 2013 AUD/USD Elliott Wave Since our last analyses the AUDUSD pair has been trading upwards, just like we expected, corrective wave a (coloured blue) of the bigger wave [b] (coloured black) has been developing. Yesterday, during the Asian and European sessions, we could observe ascending movements from 0.9441 towards the 0.9501 level. Therefore, during the New York session this major pair continued trading upwards, and we could see the price at the next highs around the 0.9520 level. We can consider this move as the end of the wave a (coloured blue). At the moment, the AUDUSD pair is trading around the 0.9480 level, and we are expecting to see more upward movements today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave B should retrace 50% of wave A, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave A with take profit at 0.9588 (50% of wave A). To reduce the risk, we can use the support point at the 0.9420 level as stop loss. Support and Resistance (S3) 0.9382 (S2) 0.9410 (S1) 0.9459 (PP) 0.9487 (R1) 0.9536 (R2) 0.9564 (R3) 0.9613 Trading forecast Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movements. That is why long positions at the level of 0.9500 with stop loss at 0.9420 and take profit at 0.9588 are recommended. USD/CAD analysis for November 5, 2013 USD/CAD Elliott Wave Since our last analyses the USDCAD pair has been trading upwards, corrective wave .y (coloured black) of the bigger wave b (coloured blue) has been developing. During Mondays Asian and European sessions, we could observe descending movements from 1.0427 towards the 1.0396 level. Therefore, during the New York session this commodity pair did not manage to hold this level and the price retraced back to the 1.0426 level. At the moment, the USDCAD pair is trading around the 1.0438 level, and we should see one more push lower today in the FLAT correction in the .y wave (coloured black). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave B should retrace 50% of wave A, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave A with take profit at 1.0382 (50% of wave A). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation point at the 1.0453 level as stop loss. Support and Resistance (S3) 1.0372 (S2) 1.0385 (S1) 1.0402 (PP) 1.0415 (R1) 1.0432 (R2) 1.0445 (R3) 1.0462 Trading forecast Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downwards movements. That is why short positions at the level of 1.0410 with stop loss at 1.0453 and take profit at 1.0382 are recommended. GBPCHF rally poised to gather pace. Remain long Technical outlook and chart setups: The currency pair should gather pace on the higher side after bouncing off the fibonacci 0.618 retracement levels at 1.4380/1.44 recently. It is, hence, recommended to hold long positions for now and also look to add further on dips. Initial support is at 1.4350 (intermediary), followed by 1.4200, and 1.4075, while resistance is at 1.48 followed by 1.5 respectively. The extension levels are pointing towards the 1.49 levels, which are convergence of retracement from 1.54 to 1.40 and extension from 1.4075 to 1.46 respectively. We would look to enter selling at the 1.49 levels from here on. Trading recommendations: Hold on to long positions, set stop below 1.43, target is at 1.49 EURJPY remains bullish above 131.00 Technical outlook and chart setups: The currency pair has bounced off the fibonacci 0.618 retracement levels recently, of the rally between 131.00 and 135.00. It is recommended to remain long on positions taken yesterday and also buy on further dips as long as prices are above 131.00. This is immediate support (131.00), followed by 130.00/129.00 and lower; while intermediary resistance is fixed at 135.00 respectively. As seen here, immediate line of support is still intact, so one should consider buying on dips as a safe trading strategy for now. On the other hand, a break of the trend line and subsequently 131.00 would shift our focus to selling on rallies. Trading recommendations: Remain long for now, stop at 131.00, target is open. Good luck! Gold rally to gather pace. 1,290/1,300 remains best buy 2013-11-05 Technical outlook and chart setups: The metal has been almost unchanged since yesterday, after bouncing off from the 1,310.00 levels. As depicted here, it is quite possible that the retracement or pullback might be over around the 1,310.00 levels; hence, it is recommended to remain long on positions initiated yesterday. As shown here, the best buy still remains between the 1,290/1,300 levels which is the fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the entire rally from 1,250.00 to 1,350.00. Intermediary support here is at 1,250.00; followed by 1,210.00 and then 1,180.00; while resistance is at 1,370/75, followed by 1,410.00 and 1,440.00, respectively. Looking higher from here on. Trading recommendations: Hold on to long positions, buy more between 1,290 and 1,300, set stop at 1,250, target is open Silver is best buy between 21.00/50 Technical outlook and chart setups: There has been structurally no change in the counter since yesterday. It is very much recommended to hold long positions initiated yesterday and buy more around the 21.00 levels. It is the fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the rally between 20.50 and 23.00. Intermediary support is at 20.50, followed by 19.00 and sub 18.00 levels; while resistance is spread through 23.50, followed by 24.50 and higher respectively. The metal might have reversed in the long term, and 21.00 levels if reached, it would be the potential right shoulder of the possible inverted head-and-shoulder reversal. Trading recommendations: Remain long, set stop below 20.50, target is open. USD/CHF technical analysis for November 5, 2013 Overview: It should be noted that the price of the USD/CHF pair has still been trapped between 0.9080 and 0.9110, as well as the price has been set below strong resistance at the levels of 0.9170 (50% of Fibonacci retracement levels in H4 chart). Additionally, it is worth noting that these levels coincidó between 50% and 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels in H4 chart; thereupon the pair has already formed a strong resistance at this level of 0.9170, and it is now approaching it in order to test it. Therefore, the possibility that Swissy will have a downside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of the fall looks not corrective. In order to indicate a bearish opportunity below 0.9170, in consequence it will a good sign to sell below 0.9170 with the first target of 0.9100. It is equally important that it will call for downtrend in order to continue bearish trend towards 0.9040. On the other hand, it is also worthy of note that the price at 0.9020 will possibly form strong support (23.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels in H4 chart). Accordingly, there is likely to be a saturation around 1.9025 to rebound the pair. Furthermore, it is possible that the market is going to start showing the signs of bullish market. Hence, it will be a good sign to buy above 0.9020 with the first target of 0.9090 and continue towards 0.9155. USD/CAD: technical analysis for November 5, 2013 Overview: The resistance for USD/CAD is set at the level of 1.0490; thus, the bears are going to sell below 1.0495, because there is a new top at the price of 1.0486 (between 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels and 78.6%). So it should also be noted that the resistance is set at the level of 1.0460; therefore swing trade at the area of 1.0495 in order to sell with the target of 1.0440 is preferable; it might resume to 1.0383. Additionally, the trend will call for a bearish market at the level of 1.0367 in case of breaking this level because there is a bearish channel. It might be informing that the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Hence, set stop loss above 1.0510 at the level of 1.0520. However, the bulls are going to buy above 1.0375 in the short term on November 5, 2013 (50% Fibonacci retracement levels) with the first target of 1.0421; it might resume to 1.0480. It should be noted that the volatility is 221.29, then the market indicates the higher volatility. In the short term, if the market calls for bearish sentiment, then the price will form a double bottom at the level of 1.0333 (in H4 time frame). Intraday technical levels: Date and Time: 5/11/2013 13:07 Pair: USD/CAD Projected High: 1.0575 Breakout (Buy Stop): 1.0520 Strong Resistance (Sell Limit): 1.0490 Current Pivot: 1.0436 Strong Support (Buy Limit): 1.0382 Breakout (Sell Stop): 1.0357 Projected Low: 1.0307 USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for November 5, 2013 2013-11-05 Four months ago, a prominent bottom was established around 1.0260. This happened after the pair found strong bearish pressure around 1.0555-1.0600, this was followed by intensive bearish momentum that led to 1.0254. An important key level was located around 1.0505. This was the key level for the previous weeks movement as the re-closure below it enabled the pair to break down 1.0455 as well, where the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range was located. The nearest support zone is located around 1.0250. On September 19, the pair expressed a false breakdown reaching 1.0180 where obvious bullish rejection was expressed to get the pair back above 1.0250 again on Thursday, resulting in a bullish hammer weekly candlestick. Since then, the pair has been consolidating within narrow range between 1.0260-1.0340, until we had a bullish breakout at the daily closure of October 8. As Expected, bullish momentum was expressed at retesting of the lower limit of the ongoing channel around 1.0280 pushing higher towards 1.0460 then probably 1.0500. The price level around 1.0465 remains the nearest considerable resistance for the pair. A valid sell entry was recommended at retesting. A daily hanging man was expressed on Wednesday followed by a bearish engulfing candlestick confirming our taken position running in profits right now. SL located above 1.0530, while TP should be located at 1.0390 then 1.0305. GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for November 5, 2013 2013-11-05 Strong bullish sentiment was found at the support zone around 1.4830, which pushed the pair to the upside reaching 1.5400, then 1.5700, where two prominent tops were established. Bullish pressure was applied off 1.5430-1.5400 which managed to break through 1.5720, thus matching the August highest level and the recently established top. The market expressed obvious closure above 1.5575 which opened the way towards 1.6000, 1.6170, then 1.6260. It is important to note that the market expressed bearish rejection off 1.6150-1.6200 which resulted in an inverted hammer weekly candlestick. That is why a bearish movement was expected to take place during the last week provided that the bears continue defending the weekly high at 1.6150. However, the lack of bearish momentum enhanced by the weakness of USD allowed the bulls to step above 1.6200 (127.2% Fibo Expansion) for a short time until bearish domination came back into the market. On October 25, there was confirmation of the bearish momentum located around 1.6200 resulting in a shooting star daily candlestick pushing more bearish steam into the market. The pair established a Head-and-Shoulders reversal pattern, where the right shoulder is located around 1.6180-1.6200 which provided a valid sell entry on retesting or after the breakdown of 1.6100 (neck-line) with SL located above 1.6250. The pair needed to breakdown the support level located around 1.6040 (100% Fibo Expansion) which took place last Friday, while now the pair needs to remain fixating below it in order to resume the ongoing movement heading for lower targets. On the other hand, daily fixation above 1.6040 will enable the pair to express bullish movement towards 1.6100-1.6150 initially.
Posted on: Tue, 05 Nov 2013 15:45:48 +0000
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