***AVIWXCHASRES SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY*** ***TAG/SHARE TO FAMILY AND FRIENDS - SPREAD THE WORD*** We had a forecast issued when this was D5. Although we are sticking with that forecast... things are escalating. This is likely going to be a Moderate Risk for Southern Michigan, Northern Ohio, Northern Indiana and North-East Illinois (The purple sector). This Risk does include the Cities of Chicago and Detroit who house millions of people. This is a Wind Event, in that the majority of the Risk is coming from Wind. Winds up to and possibly in excess of 100mph are expected to hit the Great Lakes and parts of the Ohio Valley through Wednesday. Synoptic Situation: A Deep and Powerful Low Pressure System is expected to move from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes area and lie off the Northern Coast of Michigan come Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. This Low is expected to be linked to a Cold Front which is extending from Northern Texas through South-West Oklahoma/Missouri/Illinois into Michigan, where it will Occlude over the Great Lakes via the Low and then shoot off towards the East along the Canadian/US Border. To add insult to injury, an Upper-Level High is expected to be positioned over the Gulf which will help direct South-West Winds towards the Low and the Great Lakes. In turn, this will increase the Intensity of these Winds and therefore increase the Risk. Winds are expected to be consistently above 60mph throughout the course of the day, starting from late Morning and head well into the Evening. The Strongest Winds appear to be during the Early Evening. Wind Gusts in excess of 100mph are definitely a possibility with this Event. Tornadoes will also be a Risk with the amount of Wind Shear produced by this Low. The Spinning Motion of the Low will help increase Wind Shear potential too, and therefore Waterspouts are a fair threat, along with Tornadoes and Waterspouts that may move ashore and become Tornadoes. Tornadoes shouldnt be long-lived, but they may be. They may also may regenerate multiple times as the Wind Shear varies and the tight rotation needed moves in and out of Tornadic Velocity. Hail is by far the smallest threat with this Event. The CAPE values are all positioned over Southern Oklahoma and into Northern Texas where Hail between 1 and 1.75in is possible during Severe Storms. With Damage.... Large Tree Damage is expected. Small Trees will likely be uprooted also. If the Wind is coming from the right direction, then Roofs will struggle as the Wind remains constant. Weak Walls may also collapse. Outdoor Furniture will get thrown around quite easily, and could easily become missiles which could cause harm to others (note: dont go outside in this....). Our Risks: Tornado 10% Hail 5% Wind 45% and Hatched, POSSIBLY 60%. Areas for Severe Weather Watch: • Michigan (Southern inc. Detroit & Lansing) • Wisconsin (Northern) • Indiana (Northern inc. Fort Wayne) • Ohio (Toledo) • Illinois (Chicago) • Great Lakes Waters Please take this post seriously. This event isnt a joke, and neither is the post. Although we arent professionals and dont know what the NWS and SPC will issue when the right time comes, we do know this event will be taking place and it is clearly being noticed by the NWS. The % Risks that are stated above, are from years of experience along with knowing what the NWS has done in the past, as well as seeing the models and understanding what is coming up in the future. ***THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST, BUT ONE MADE PURELY BY AVIWXCHASERS BASED OFF OF RISK VIA THE NWS AND SPC*** Image 1: SPC Probabilistic Forecast Image 2: NAM Surface Winds for Wednesday Evening Image 3: NAM Mid-Level (850mb) Winds for Wednesday Evening ~Thomas~
Posted on: Tue, 09 Sep 2014 07:31:21 +0000
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