AYUNGIN SHOAL: A PIVOTAL FLASHPOINT IN THE US-CHINA RIVALRY by JOSE RIZAL M. REYES March 20, 2014 The new US-Philippine agreement on enhanced rotational presence of US forces with privilege to use Philippine military bases would get its baptism of fire if and when China seizes Ayungin Shoal. It will be a litmus test on the efficacy of the Mutual Defense Treaty between the US and the Philippines. If China dares to grab Ayungin and successfully keeps it, the USA would lose a lot of face as a worthless and unreliable ally. It would put China in a commanding position to control the flow of commerce in the Southeast Asian seas whenever it pleases. It would also signal Chinas replacement of the US as the preeminent global superpower. But, and this is a big but, if the US blows the whistle on China and forces it to vacate from the Ayungin Shoal, it is China who would lose a lot of face. It would not just be a big slap on Chinas face; it is also like cutting off one of its hands. This would greatly diminish the standing of China in the eyes of the world even as it would also confirm and formalize its descent into the status of ex-future leading superpower of the world. The situation in Ukraine should serve as a disturbing warning to China: the Western alliance is not dying; in fact, it has undergone a miraculous resurrection despite of its financial problems. While China is digging a hole for itself in the Asian seas, the West is gaining a substantial strategic gain in the European front with the certain inclusion of Ukraine -- or whats left of it -- into the Western fold. What if China seizes Ayungin Shoal and the US eject it from the same, whats next? From the point of view of the Philippines and for the well-being of the planet, the best next move for the West is like this: (1) After the dust has settled in Ukraine, the West should come into a mutually acceptable arrangement and pragmatic understanding with Russia; and (2) With the plummeting political and military credibility of Beijing, the West should go into an earnest effort to defeat China economically in close cooperation with its allies all around the world.
Posted on: Thu, 20 Mar 2014 20:57:38 +0000
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