AZZAMAN AZZAMAN AND GREG ABOLO IN AN IMPASSIONED LOOK AT THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: BUHARIS VOTES IN THE NORTH PLUS BOLA TINUBUS VOTES IN THE SOUTH WEST MEANS AUTOMATIC VICTORY FOR APC. This calculation is very wrong I dont believe it. 1. I believe 90% of the 17m voters in the South East and South South will vote for GEJ. REASONS :GEJ is a son of the soil. The South East and South South seem joined in holy matrimony together. 2. I believe even with Tinubus factor the 13.5m votes in the South West will be split. Jonathan might even have an edge. REASONS :APC has lost Ekiti and Ondo is now PDP. In Oyo APC are not finding it funny and that State is tilting towards the PDP. The fall out of the State Governor Abiola Ajimobi with major players such as Rasheed Ladoja and the rebound of former governor Alao-Akala is a minus to APC . Worse is also the death of Alh. Alao Arisekola which is a blow to APC in the State. In Ogun State Governor Ibikunle Amosun is not finding it funny. Olusegun Osoba seems to have control of the senators and house members. The governor and Osoba are working along parrallel lines , while PDP are busy bringing their lost members back. 3.GEJ can win 30% to 40% of the 18.5m votes in the North West. REASONS: GEJ has done that before in 2011 and he can do it again. The president has many powerful politicians from that zone and his recent reconciliation with Sule Lamido is a plus for him. We should not also forget we have middlebelt tribes in some of the states such as Southern Kaduna people whose votes are always tilted towards PDP. 4. The North East has 11m voters as at the last count . All the States except Adamawa and Taraba always go Buhari way. But in 2015 we will see a more improved GEJ in Borno with the defection of Ali Modu Sheriff from APC to PDP. Borno with its 2.5m voters is the fifth in the country after Lagos 5.4m, Kano 4.7m, Kaduna 3.7m and Katsina 2.9m 5. The North Central with 11m votes always go the way of GEJ. Kogi, Benue, Nasarawa, Niger,Plateau, FCT will be a clean sweep for GEJ. Some strong reasons GEJ is in the good books of IBB and Babangida Aliyu that is in Niger State . The huge Christian population in this zone will tilt towards GEJ. Kwara State might be a bit difficult for GEJ this time around even though he won in the State in 2011. The Bukola Saraki factor might aid Buhari s victory in that state but even at that GEJ will do very well in Kwara State. TO SAY South West WILL GIVE APC THEIR BLOCK VOTES CAN NOT BE TRUE . TO SAY ONLY South West AND North WILL GIVE APC TOTAL VICTORY CAN NEVER BE POSSIBLE By Azzaman Azzaman of the Core Middle Belt Value, a closed group. SECOND LOOK AT THE SOUTH WEST: I analyse the South West votes thus: Ekiti State: The return of Ayo Fayose to the Government House is going to work just fine for President Jonathan.He is a grassroots man who is deeply loved by his people. Same goes for Ondo State, whose Governor Olusegun Mimiko ,in the last eight years, successfully resisted any forays of the ACN led by Bola Tinubu, into Ondo State from his Labour Party. 7 months to the end of his tenure, he joined the PDP again with the entire State structure, ostensibly, to help President Jonathan realize his ambition in the feeling that that presidency should not belong only to the big or powerful tribes. Ondo is likely to go PDP. Ogun State APC is right now in disarray. All its Senators have left. Two are with the Social Democratic Party, SDP, of former Governor Olusegun Osoba. One is now in the PDP camp. The allegations of corrupt practices against the governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun are very strong. And wont go away. Worse still, little or no development occurred in that State. Not many of its citizens agree with Tinubus over bearing influence. Chief Obasanjos sniffing at the navigation seat of the Party in his home State is particularly offensive to its people because of his past betrayals and deceits of the political actors there, despite the help they gave to him when he came out of prison, to the presidency. Former governor Osoba and the immediate past governor in the State , Gbenga Daniel, would rather pitch their tent with GEJ, than Buhari, whose military constituency rubbed their noses badly in the mud under the jackboot rules of Buhari and Abacha especially. All their elder statesmen were humiliated. Ogun people rever Chief Awolowo. Buhari treated the icon very badly. Ogun State will make a good showing for president Jonathan. Osun State: This is where General Buhari will make a better showing in the South West. But GEJ will run away with between 45% to 65%, depending on how things shape up campaign wise. Lagos State: This ground will be exciting. Going by previous outings, Lagosians, whose composition cut across every ethnic group in Nigeria, desirous of freedom, liberty and free enterprise. They will not forget Buhari that is anti entrepreneurial spirit and anti freedom. They would rather go with Jonathan for the presidency, and with their action governor sidelined in the scheme of things, anger might push them further into the PDP. Governor Fashola deserves better treatment in their reasoning. Though Buhari will get a smaller size of the percentage votes. Oyo State: With the whirlwind victory and grand comeback of Ayo Fayose in Ekiti,former Governor Chris Akala had buoyed hopes and instantly ditched his bid for the Senate, and instead, gunned for the bigger post, his former position in Agodi Gate (Government house ). Two things did not favour him. One. The leanness of his pockets, and secondly, he met some big spenders who are from Ibadan zone, the zone of big numbers. One of them is Engr Seyi Makinde, a big spender who is fresh, a fresh kid on the block, making a determined bid for government house, without the extra baggage of heaviness that comes with familiar players. Waiting in the wings to act spoiler was former Senator Teslim Folarin , who used his Abuja connections to corner the ticket after losing twice at primary election. This has angered the other contenders who floated away to Labour Party, (Akala) and Social Democratic Party (Makinde). This is what may give the hitherto waning chances of incumbent governor, Senator Ajimobi some boost. But should the contenders realize their weak points and coalesce into one before the election , Ajimobi might not find it too funny. But with proper on ~the ~side negotiations, with the disparate actors, Akala can deliver his Ogbomosho zone, while Teslim and Makinde will do same for Ibadan zone. When anger has cooled, and ministerial negotiations are concluded. Oyo can be largely swung for GEJ. Besides the foremost zone that pioneered education in the country may not be enamored with the prospect of being led by a man without a single academic certificate who was a jackboot dictator that showed scant love for their region when he invaded the landscape with rifles. From all available indications, President Jonathan seems set to win.
Posted on: Sat, 03 Jan 2015 04:30:41 +0000