About the next 96 hours.... 1) The storm now winding up in the vicinity of S NM will reform below Galveston TX tomorrow, then begin a track along the Gulf Coast before recurving through the NC Outer Banks, then offshore on a trek into the Bay of Fundy by Sunday morning. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will target the Interstate 10 corridor from San Antonio TX eastward to Jacksonville FL. Rain may change or at least end as sleet, snow or freezing rain in parts of the Interstate 20 corridor west of Atlanta GA; I cannot see the amounts being too much but again a little icing goes a long way. This is especially true for N TX later tomorrow into Friday morning. 2) Things get really tricky again for the entire Eastern Seaboard, Piedmont and Shenandoah Valley. Because strong vertical motion will occur in the comma head of the storm as it makes its move toward Cape Hatteras NC, and because elevation effects may be a factor, the Interstate 85 corridor from near Atlanta GA to South Hill VA may have some issues with sleet and freezing rain on Friday night. Snow should form in parts of lower and middle Appalachia before the surface system starts to undergo bombogenesis. 3) Talk about bombing out! As the low moves from east of Norfolk VA to the 40/70 Benchmark, rapid pressure falls will coincide with an explosion of precipitation from near Richmond VA early Saturday into southern New England by nightfall. The difficult part is this: will a cold air drain set up from Quebec and Ontario into the major cities of the Interstate 95 corridor, and will the powerhouse UVV signature shove the snow to rain line back to the coast? I suspect that one or both parameters will be workable. So while early snow and sleet from C and N VA goes to rain, the arc of liquid types will likely not get much more than 50 miles to the left of the urban areas before marching back down to the shoreline of DE....NJ....S NY....CT....RI and MA. Granted, this may mean a mostly rain event for Long Island, but even there with the monster height, temperature and pressure falls a changeover to all snow is probable in the end quarter of the system. 4) It is too early to mention the B word, despite the extreme pressure gradient (962MB core) off of the coast of NY and New England. But that heavy snow and zero visibility in wind situation could crop up. I should have an accumulation chart for everyone on Thursday after the 12z run. 5) The follow-up storm does not look impressive on the most recent computer models runs. Something like the current clipper-type system, there might be additional snowfall in the Ohio Valley, Virginias and Mid-Atlantic states early next week. 6) The cold air fetch that develops behind the storm will keep the eastern two-thirds of the nation in the freezer through the first six days of February. Hey, look, its winter. A cold January followed by storms and a cold start to February. :)
Posted on: Wed, 21 Jan 2015 20:09:37 +0000
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