According to Prof. Bernsteins detailed analysis of all the available information on Irans nuclear program, the quantities of uranium they have enriched over the years, and the various degrees to which they have enriched it, and how much they have succeeded in hiding from IAEA inspections, there is a very high probability that Iran would require no more than 6 months (possibly only 3) to produce a quantity of sufficiently enriched uranium for manufacturing and assembling its first bomb. No agreement by itself can prevent Iran from achieving a bomb. However an agreement can impose conditions that could significantly increase the amount of time Iran would require to complete the final lap once it had decided to do so. Any agreement that would be acceptable to Israel must slowdown that final lap to the point where the international community would have sufficient warning time both to discover Iran had broken the agreement, and to do something about it. Given the time Western intelligence agencies would require discover what Iran was doing, and then governments would require to formulate and implement an effective response, we are talking about at least a year between the time Iran decided to break the agreement until they actually had their first bomb fully assembled. These are the devilish details that will determine whether any agreement reached between the West and Iran would and could be acceptable to Israel, the country most likely to be the first country to be threatened by an Iranian bomb. Iran would not need to actually launch a bomb to neutralize Israel. Once it had proven it had a bomb, all it would need to do is threaten to instigate a war that could go nuclear unless Israel agreed to whatever terms Iran dictated. Immediately Israel would come under intense pressure to negotiate while under a nuclear ultimatum. The political and economic fallout of such a situation could set forces in motion that would have a high probability of ending in the demise of Israel as a viable sovereign state. This means that a bad agreement, one that would not ensure Iran would require at least a year to build its first bomb once it had decided to do so could have as its price tag a war between Israel and Iran.
Posted on: Sun, 12 Oct 2014 10:57:00 +0000