Active Weather Hazards Morris IL 925 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013 - TopicsExpress

Active Weather Hazards Morris IL 925 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013 /1025 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013/THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA..DAY ONE, OVERNIGHT.WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:THUNDERSTORMS, THE STRONGEST MAY PRODUCE:WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.HEAVY RAIN, WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:THE ENTIRE AREA OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANAMAY SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 10 PM, HOWEVER THEAREA WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS WILLBE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A PONTIAC TO RENSSELAER LINE.DISCUSSION:EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BEGAN TO DEVELOP ACROSSMISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA, TIED TO A MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE.THIS MIDLEVEL FEATURE HAS SINCE WEAKENED AS IT HAS PUSHED EASTINTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE, HOWEVERNOT TO THE LEVEL AT IT WAS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THUS THESEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED AS WELL. SOME DEEPERMOISTURE CONVERGENCE DOES STILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SOMEWEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTEREDTHUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST AREASAPPEAR FOR BETTER ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THEILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN STATELINE, AND AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OFA PONTIAC TO RENSSELAER LINE.THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME VERY MOISTACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5INCHES. THIS IN ADDITION TO THE REMNANTS OF THE MIDLEVEL WAVEMAY ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS COULDEASILY LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS.PORTIONS OF THE ILLINOIS AND KANKAKEE RIVERS WILL REMAIN INFLOOD, WITH PORTIONS OF THE IROQUOIS ABOVE BANK FULL..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN, SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.PORTIONS OF THE ILLINOIS AND KANKAKEE RIVERS WILL REMAIN INFLOOD..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT.

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