Afghanistan: International forces end combat mission; risks from insurgency to continue The NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) formally marked the end of 13 years of combat missions in the country on 28 December; the majority of ISAF/US combat forces will withdraw by the end of 2014. Around 13,000 troops, mostly from the US, are scheduled to remain in the country until 2016 in a training and advisory role to the Afghan security forces and security ministries. The Afghan security forces are unlikely to contain the spread of the Taliban-led insurgency, which will remain the primary travel security threat in the short-to-medium term. With support from the residual international troop presence, the Afghan government is expected to retain control of the capital Kabul and other key urban centres, as well as major highways. Nonetheless, Kabul will continue to witness a spike in complex attacks and suicide bombings as insurgents attempt to sustain the heightened level of violence during the period of uncertainty following ISAFs withdrawal. The overwhelming majority of attacks are likely to remain focused on the Afghan security forces, particularly the police. Government officials, pro-government tribal/religious leaders – especially those deemed effective at creating unity among Afghan security force units and political factions – and US troops and US/NATO security advisors are also key targets. The highest risk to foreign civilians is from incidental exposure to attacks against these targets. However, the direct threat to the international civilian community and areas frequented by foreigners appears to be increasing. Business class hotels, guest houses, embassies, activities associated with the international assistance efforts, including aid programmes, and foreigners involved in activities perceived to threaten Islam are at high risk. Foreigners will also continue to face a high risk of abduction, particularly staff involved in construction or rehabilitation and aid efforts, due to the remoteness of the areas in which they typically operate.
Posted on: Mon, 29 Dec 2014 20:40:15 +0000
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