After analyzing, pondering, stewing, more analyzing and of course more stewing (*chuckle*), I have finally decided on my snow forecast even though the computer models are not in agreement. So I have to do the agreeing for them. :-) Map number 1 is from the the NAM 12km. It is usually conservative and fairly consistent run to run. What I find curious is how far north it brings the snow with this system which as you all can see is a southern storm based on the purple and pink shadings in the southern part of the state.. This is a pic of Colorado, and the southern part of the state, extending into New Mexico is going to get hammered. Denver, at least how I see it, is on the northern edge of getting heavier accumulations and yet this computer model has more in Boulder Country than much of Denver Metro. I have also seen this in the UKMET model, a model I have never been that high on in all my years of forecasting. Based on how the other computer models are handling this, and I think with a bit more sanity, here is what I am calling for. Map number 2 is my snow forecast based on all the computer models and what I think this system is going to do. I put a few towns on the map to give you all some perspective. In my humble opinion, I may be a bit high in some areas, and I am not sold on the Foothill locations getting close to 6 inches of snow based on how this system is setting up. Because though the normally conservative and rational NAM has 3 plus inches in Estes, that along with elevated induced snow could bring the Foothill locations up to 5 inches. I have been analyzing and studying elevated induced snows for 30 years, and trust me, it is very difficult to know when this aspect of snowfall is going to take over and run the show. Folks in Estes Park know that I have been going at it in their town for over 20 years, and its a challenge to nail the forecasts there. Same for Nederland and Allenspark. I must say though I love forecasting for Estes Park, Ned and Allenspark. As for the rest of my snow totals, I will stand by them until I see how this storm continues to evolve. Dont be surprised if I tweak this forecast before tonight or during the night. The time frame for general snows to start falling will be tonight, with the snow lasting possibly into early Thursday morning. I will say one more thing about this system. If it should decide to tilt about 50 to 60 miles further north, then the northern half of the state, including Denver Metro, would see significant accumulations. You can bet Ill be monitoring and analyzing this system closely. Ill be in the Weather Center all night and will send updates to Weather Talk as needed. Hope you all have a great day!
Posted on: Tue, 20 Jan 2015 22:05:42 +0000
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