After chewing on a lot of data this week, I have concerns about the upcoming election. No one wants to ignore facts. When we do ignore facts, its generally to our harm, so please allow me to put some facts out there. In mid-October 2012, a Battleground Poll indicated that Republicans led Democrats by 10 points among those extremely likely to vote. These who are extremely likely to vote well call core voters. They always vote in every election. Of course, Obama won that election. Romney himself was surprised to learn that he lost. The data didnt support that outcome. While many of us want to blame it on fraud, and certainly there are circumstances where thats been proven, that likely wasnt the reason. In study after study since the 2012 election, Romney turned out the core voters, but not the peripheral voter - the one who sometimes votes. These people turn out when it feels important for them to do so, but its not out of a sense of duty. We might call them moderate. You might have heard them called swing voters, but whats important to know is that they dont make politics a habit, they dont label themselves by a party affiliation, and pulling them into voting is a science that the Democrats have studied very hard - and continue to do so. When I talk of Freedom Pools, I tell people to find their 12. This group of 12 is not made up of core voters; it should be composed of people about whom its not certain that they will vote - the peripheral voters. I urge people to have face to face conversations with them individually. This will bring more voters and multiply the vote. In my research this week, I found that the Democrats have reached similar conclusions. For example, Working America, an arm of the AFL-CIO, has the stated goal of hold 25,000 face-to-face conversations with voters every week until election day. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is moving away from buying ads and focusing instead buying campaign workers. This model is driven by Colorados 2010 senate race in which Bennett beat Buck by a fraction of the votes cast. The success of the GOTV effort in Colorado propelled Bennett to chair of the DSCC. Their effort is called the Bannock Street Project. Their sole aim is to bring more peripheral voters to the election, as they did in that senate race and as Obama did in 2012. The Republicans have nothing on par with this level of sophistication. And other tools, such as Catalist, will further enable the Democrats to find these peripheral voters. Likewise, the Republicans have nothing at all like Catalist - for a host of reasons that i wont get into here. I started presenting Freedom Pools to see how the grassroots took to it. With a lot of interest, to be sure, but Republican and Libertarian voters still dont feel the need to do something different to win. Obama pushes immigration reform and the war on women meme to discourage core non-Democrats and pull peripheral voters into Democrat circles. Its working. The Republican and Libertarian establishment arent going to respond adequately to this threat. Its up to the grassroots. What I see of the grassroots is a lot of activity around core voter participation - attending talks and meetings - but relatively few face-to-face conversations and conversions. There are some who go door-to-door, but the notion of going to your friends, family, neighbors, co-workers, etc... lets just say that many people find it easier to approach a stranger about politics than a friend. Its about 40 days until election. The Senate is up for grabs, but just as importantly - if not more importantly - many local races will be decided by the number of contacts made with peripheral voters before election day. The Democrats are all over it and have a track record to back up their method. For that reason, November might surprise us in ways we dont like. Theres still time, but it will require doing something very different than were doing to microtarget peripheral voters.
Posted on: Sat, 27 Sep 2014 03:28:17 +0000
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