After hounding Mujuru out of office, is Mugabe preparing Grace to take over? By KITSEPILE NYATHI in Harare Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe with his wife Grace Mugabe celebrates his re-election unopposed as the leader of Zanu-PF for the next five years during the closing day of the 6th Peoples Congress of Zanu-PF in Harare on December 6, 2014. Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe has ruled the southern African country since independence from Britain in 1980, but observers believe events of the past six months signal the beginning of the end of his long reign. His Zanu-PF party last week effected an unprecedented purge of stalwarts perceived to harbour ambitions to challenge the ageing leader. Longtime vice-president Joice Mujuru was dumped after she was accused of plotting a coup against the 90-year-old leader. At least eight Cabinet ministers were shown the door for their role in the alleged coup. Ms Mujuru was seen as one of the strongest contenders to succeed President Mugabe. The veteran ruler has since appointed Justice minister Emmerson Mnangagwa and Zimbabwe’s former ambassador to South Africa Phelekezela Mphoko as co-vice-presidents. The sweeping changes were unthinkable before the dramatic entry of President Mugabe’s 49 year-old wife Grace into the political scene in August. The First Lady did not mince her words from the word go, telling Ms Mujuru that her time was up. She accused Ms Mujuru of a litany of crimes that included a plot to oust her husband. Military veterans Analysts say at 90, President Mugabe has become too old to run a country and hawks in the ruling party, who include the military veterans, roped in his wife to fill the vacuum while they manage the succession issue. Vince Musewe, a political analyst, said the purge of Ms Mujuru and her allies, most of whom had been in the government since 1980, showed that the First Lady had started preparing for life after her husband. “It is now clear, whether we like it or not, that she will hold considerable sway in who becomes what within Zanu-PF and government as along as President Robert Mugabe is alive,” he said. “I suspect she will also have significant say on Zanu-PF policies as the secretary for youth and women, who make up the majority members of the party.” Mr Musewe also believes that President Mugabe is trying to position his wife to take over when he eventually retires. He said the recent purge was aimed at ensuring that there is no resistance to the creation of a Mugabe dynasty. “We will most likely have lame ducks in government, who are not about to take the risk of challenging him on his plans to elevate his wife, given what has happened to Mujuru and her alleged allies,” he said. “Mugabe is certainly not about to hand over power to anyone other than Grace or someone he completely trusts, and these are few.” Some observers believe the First Lady is already running the show and they cite an incident at the most recent Zanu-PF congress, where the fate of Ms Mujuru and her allies was sealed. Stop talking President Mugabe was called to the podium to dissolve the Zanu-PF central committee following the election of new members. The ritual normally takes less than five minutes, but the President delivered a lecture on Zimbabwe’s liberation history. The First Lady had to intervene, passing a note to him advising him to take his seat. He told the delegates that he had been ordered to stop talking. “My wife has written a note, she says I am talking too much,” he said. “That’s how I am treated even at home, so I must listen.” As he left the podium, President Mugabe chanted “Down with Zanu-PF” and it again took his wife to point out the gaffe to him as he took his seat. The First Lady appeared embarrassed by the two incidents, but analysts saw it as evidence that the President is becoming senile and his capacity to rule is diminishing. In another gaffe last Thursday, President Mugabe named Victoria Chitepo, the widow of Zanu-PF’s wartime chairman Herbert Chitepo, the new Women’s Affairs minister, but her name was removed from the list the following day. University of Zimbabwe political science lecturer Eldred Masunungure said it is now apparent that the First Lady is calling the shots. “Generally, the First Lady of any nation wields considerable power behind closed doors,” Prof Masunungure told the Zimbabwe Independent. “This is normally done covertly, surreptitiously and publicly it is never declared. It is odd that Grace is coming out and declaring that she is in charge by giving the President orders publicly when she does not hold any formal or constitutional position in the party and government.” Her husband Last month, the First Lady told one of her rallies that she would forcibly remove Ms Mujuru from office if her husband failed to do so. She claimed that the president was also fed up with his then deputy and she did not know what was delaying her exit. Prof Masunungure said there were clear signs that the President’s wife could be a worse dictator if she were allowed to succeed her husband. “The scary part is what will happen when she gets formal power when now, without it, she speaks in a way that suggests she is the de facto president — powerful and influential,” he said. “What if she had formal power?” The manner in which Ms Mujuru was ousted earned her the sympathy of ordinary Zimbabweans, who felt that she was unfairly targeted by the First Lady. Prof Masunungure said President Mugabe is not in charge of his succession matrix. “These are fearful times. I thought the President was manoeuvring things in the background, but if she is not consulting him, it means the country is in trouble,” Prof Masunungure said. “Now, they take or wait for instructions from her. She is not the only one with informal power; there is also the council of elders of war veterans.” President Mugabe has always shied away from anointing a successor and now observers believe it is too late. At the congress, Zanu-PF gave him the mandate to lead the party for another five years and this means he could be the party’s presidential candidate in 2018, at the age of 94. First Vice-President Mnangagwa is also seen as one of the beneficiaries of Ms Mujuru’s exit, as the two were believed to be leading factions vying to succeed President Mugabe. Unfit to lead The former spymaster has a strong relationship with the securocrats, who some believe engineered the Zanu-PF leadership changes. President Mugabe’s wife was full of praise for Mr Mnangagwa during her countrywide rallies in which she cast Ms Mujuru as incompetent and unfit to lead the country. Political analyst Ibbo Mandaza said the ongoing purge would target anyone seen as a threat to the First Family. “The current situation has all the hallmarks of a conventional dictatorship in the political economy definition of the term: A decisive and thorough purge of anyone — or anything — that purports to be opposed to the First Family and the state, an amazing disdain for and apparent obliviousness to, the political and economic realities that constitute the Zimbabwe crisis and a relentless determination to rule ad nauseam regardless of the consequences,” he said. “That, in short, describes the Zanu-PF congress’s outcome, the purge of an elected vice-president and several of her Cabinet colleagues and the marginalisation — by exclusion from the central committee of the party — of at least 100 out of 160 legislators. “Significantly, those purged from the leading ranks of the party include a large proportion of former liberation war combatants, especially those who constituted the provincial executives of Masvingo, Manicaland and Mashonaland Central Provinces.” Dr Mandaza said the purge will not end with Ms Mujuru and her perceived allies, as securocrats who are believed to be fighting in the First Family’s corner move to install Mr Mnangagwa. State bureaucracy “Indications are that the purges in Zanu-PF will not end here, they will be extended to the state bureaucracy itself, the defence and security forces,” he said. “There appears no end in sight.” “The new leadership, which Mugabe is putting together in both the party and state, will include elements who have been central in the evolution of the securocratic state, those who are part and parcel of the politics since the bloody campaigns of the post 2008 elections, and will have been the instruments for the current ‘clean up’”. President Mugabe won the 2008 presidential elections in controversial circumstances after he lost the first round to opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai. He won a controversial run-off poll after Mr Tsvangirai pulled out, citing violence against his supporters. At least 100 opposition supporters were killed in the violence, which was blamed on the security forces. President Mugabe went on to win another disputed election last year, which he used to tighten his grip on power. The former VP said she had warned President Mugabe that Zanu-PF had been infiltrated, but he was oblivious to the plot. Ms Mujuru has insisted that the claims that she was plotting to kill President Mugabe were ridiculous and were only created to push her out of her position. Electoral loss “I was acting president several times and I do not think there was ever a time when any of his security detail told him that the vice-president invited us over for a plot of that nature, no way,” she said. She has maintained that she would remain in Zanu-PF despite her humiliation. But her political influence is likely to wane significantly and she may never bounce back. This would leave the First Lady and possibly Mr Mnangagwa firmly in control, even in the post-Mugabe era. If President Mugabe is re-elected in 2018, he would be serving his last term in office, as the new Constitution adopted last year restricts presidential terms to two. Zimbabwe’s opposition was severely weakened by last year’s electoral loss and there are few prospects that it will recover to take advantage of the fissures in Zanu-PF. Meanwhile, the former Zanu-PF Women’s League secretary Oppah Muchinguri has hinted that President Mugabe could appoint his wife a Cabinet minister. The President swore in 10 new ministers last Friday to replace those fired for allegedly siding with Ms Mujuru, but left the Women’s Affairs portfolio open. “It is up to the President,” said Mrs Muchinguri, who was appointed Higher Education minister. “I wore two hats, as secretary for women’s affairs in the League as well as minister for the same portfolio. I would not be surprised and if it happens (the First Lady is appointed)... in fact, if it happened that way, the better. “One needs to carry the portfolio from the party through to government and, in fact, we would need to have the matron of all the country’s women (the First Lady) heading the same at Cabinet level to make sure things move smoothly. She would be able to deal with issues affecting women easily and at the moment she needs our prayers.”
Posted on: Sat, 20 Dec 2014 18:30:51 +0000
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