After months of failed telephone diplomacy between Angela Merkel and Vladimir Putin, hardliners are gaining the upper hand in discussions over the appropriate response to Russia. They may soon prevail with demands that go far beyond new economic sanctions... The crisis in Eastern Europe, just two hours by plane from Berlin, is now entering its 10th month. What began with the collapse of an association agreement between the European Union and Ukraine can now be called a war. [...] Merkel and Steinmeier are facing a Russian leadership that appears to be toying with them. After prolonged pressure, Putin participated in an April conference that included the EU, the US and Ukraine. The closing statement read: All illegal armed groups must be disarmed; all illegally seized buildings must be returned to legitimate owners. Of course, none of that has happened. Later, in a telephone conversation with Merkel, Putin demanded a unilateral cease-fire, which the chancellor then pushed for in Kiev. After Ukrainian leaders finally agreed, Putin allowed pro-Russian rebels to capture several border crossings that have been since been used to facilitate transports of supply replenishments from Russia. Weeks later, Putin dispatched his foreign minister to a meeting in Berlin. But as soon as he returned to Moscow, a Russian military convoy got lost and entered Ukrainian territory by mistake. [...] The German governments Russia experts dont even want to venture a guess as to whether the deployment of Russian troops is part of a plan or just a spontaneous reaction to internal power struggles. Concerns are already mounting in Berlin that Putin may be seeking to create and partition off a corridor along the Black Sea coast running from the eastern Ukrainian border to Transnistria in the west -- in other words, through the southern Ukrainian provinces the Kremlin likes to call New Russia. That would provide Moscow with a land bridge to Crimea as well as a direct connection to the Russian separatists in Moldovas Transnistria region. [...] Thus far, Merkels approach had enjoyed broad support within NATO. And she was able to ensure that Jens Stoltenberg, the smooth and diplomatic former prime minister of Norway, take over for outgoing NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen. But attitudes are shifting. With each new Russian provocation, the arguments in favor of confrontation are becoming more difficult to ignore. For the first time in this conflict, the German government in August was forced to retreat from one of its prior positions. Poland and the Baltic states had demanded that resolutions for an increased NATO presence in their countries would not automatically expire after one year. The Eastern Europeans had succeeded in recent weeks in gaining the support of every other member state. Except for Germany. [...] For now, the red line for the alliances increased presence in Eastern Europe is the 1997 Founding Act on Mutual Relations between NATO and Russia. It states that the alliance will not engage in additional permanent stationing of substantial combat forces in the areas of the former Eastern Bloc. Level Four sanctions could include withdrawing from the treaty, but that would also increase the risk of falling into the kind of military logic of a new Cold War with Russia. This is exactly what Merkel would like to avoid, if only because she wants to spare the West from this final escalation for as long as possible. Poland and the Baltic states are nevertheless still pushing for a demonstrative break with Moscow, and they are gaining increasing support for their position. Theyve also gained the backing of Canada, which is home to far more than 1 million people of Ukrainian origin.
Posted on: Tue, 02 Sep 2014 16:54:17 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015