After reading several articles posted in /r/economics, it seems as though the global economy is nearly, or in, a state of peril. Chinese productivity is declining, not good. Plus their growth is increasingly becoming dependent on state spending, bad. Brazil has officially entered a recession, bad. They have had two straight quarter of negative growth, granted of 0.2% and 0.6%, but still not good. Russia is invading Ukraine, very bad. This has led to near recession/impending recession in Russia. Also led to some major stock market declines there and minor declines in the west. South Africa is stalling b/c of poor political management b/c of virtual single-party rule. The Middle East is on fire, metaphorically. Israel is getting rocketed hurting growth. Iran is facing punishing sanctions which have led to high inflation and little economic growth. Syria is in a civil war facing a group of genocidal monsters. Iraq is in a similar situation as Syria, but possibly worse since around half of the country has broken apart with much controlled by the Islamic State. Venezuala has riots b/c people are lacking access to basic goods. Eurozone is heading nowhere good with banks still needing/getting bailed out. Record low inflation and similarly record low growth. Were talking ~1% in the best of countries! The bright side? India and Japan have leaders that are eyeing serious economic reforms that would structurally change their economies for the better. Go Abe and Modi. Western Africa is also looking positive. Many countries there are recording some of their highest growth levels ever. Even Nigeria is looking positive with their economy becoming less and less dependent on oil exports. Unfortunately, on a whole, the current situation looks negative. Another global recession could easily arise soon. It has been 5, and almost 6, years since the last recession. It wouldnt be unnatural for another to soon occur. In fact, it would be unlikely if one didnt occur within the next couple years.
Posted on: Sat, 30 Aug 2014 02:00:00 +0000
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