All factors remaining constant, President Uhuru Kenyatta and his - TopicsExpress

All factors remaining constant, President Uhuru Kenyatta and his Deputy, William Ruto, are far ahead of Raila Odinga. This is because Uhuru and Ruto have still maintained their usual voting bloc. The Kikuyus are ready to die with Uhuru and Kalenjins are always ready to die with Ruto. In the last election, Uhuru and Ruto garnerred 6.2 million votes which translated to 51 percent of the total votes cast. The two also enjoy huge numerical advantage since their communities lead in voter registration and they only require a small number of votes to win. On the other hand, Raila requires a collection of many regions in order for him to win the plebiscite. For CORD to win the looming referendum, it needs to collect all opposition votes and hopefully have a share in Rutos Kalenjin bloc which is virtually impossible. Even if Raila unites all opposition chiefs, he cannot win the referendum! A referendum is about simple majority not 50+1 vote!

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