Aloha Puna Ohana, I have done some math that hopefully helps people have a clear idea of time frames of expected flows to reach certain key places... First thing for people to understand, the flows can speed up and slow down so these number can change...but as a rule of thumb, faster flows equal narrower flows, slower flows spread out wider, thats why they are slower...its like if you take water/lava through a pipe (lava tube or crack) it goes fast, if you pour water/lava on the floor it spreads out and goes slower...so to be totally clear...a slower flow will be WORSE than a faster flow due to a wider flow which will cause more damage with a wider swath through town and more likely to cut off power poles. So dont be excited about it slowing down...it will only be worse a few days later!!! There are no more cracks or lava tubes left before Pahoa. It will all be surface flow from here unfortunately. Helco told me at the lava fair that they can stretch the power line 1000-1500 feet at the most. Currently the flow is 900 feet wide and growing wider is the trend. Much over a 1000 feet will equal no power below the flow, and even 1000 feet runs a sagging line over 2000+ degree lava which itself can over time ruin the line. Have to say lower puna should fully prepare for no power at some point as early as (oct 8th-ish). Back to time frames... Current flow rate average since sept 12th is 705 feet a day...5280 feet in a mile...equals 7.4 days per mile. Flow is 2.7 miles to Pahoa town itself as of 9/15 = about 20 days from now (oct 5th-ish) and another 2-3 days (Oct 7-8th-ish) to cover hwy 130. Then it is about another 7 miles to the costline which will cut off all roads. 7 miles X 7.4 days a mile = about 53 days to ocean entry! (Thanksgiving-ish). Now lava does not go in straight line so it maybe more than 7 miles to shore, so flow could move into December before hits ocean. Plus according to topo maps the slope is LESS steep after Pahoa, but still downhill for sure, so that may slow it down a bit as well. But remember slower equals wider flow! So at the LATEST ocean entry should be by end of the year at current flow rate. To my beloved ohana, please dont act like this is a 50/50 thing this will happen, treat it as 100% happening until flow from source stops and at this time there is ZERO indication that is happening!!!!!! Prepare now, make your strategy for staying or leaving. Assume you will have no access after thanksgiving to new year, no grid power after oct 8th-ish and mostly likely no county water if you are south of flow. This is no joke, this is for real!!! If Pelé changes her mind, then lets celebrate, but otherwise treat this outcome a fact! I love and support you all in taking care of yourselves and ohanas...this is the time to make a plan and act on it...please dont wait and see what happens and scurry around on the final days, supplies will be sold out, traffic to leave will be crazy and enough other people will wait till last second and add to traffic and chaos. We at the Cape Kumukahi Foundation (501c3) will do all we can support those who stay and victims of lava, but we and other government and NGOs can only do so much...Please do all you can to prepare NOW!!!!! Please Share this with your network if found value in this analysis. Accurate information is crucial right now. I will do my best to continue to update info the best I can to everyone as things evolve...prepare for the worst, hope for the best! With Love and Aloha, Scott Malis Executive Director of Cape Kumukahi Foundation
Posted on: Tue, 16 Sep 2014 09:18:27 +0000