Alright, time to make a first call forecast. Over the past several days Ive analyzed the models and data to the best of my ability. I havent given you a forecast and I made that abundantly clear that there is so much that goes into this storm that you need to get close to it to have a solid idea of exactly whats coming. I told you substantial snow was possible and that rain/sleet was possible, just needed to figure out how much of which. So now after compiling enough information, heres my first call: It appears to me that with no major cold air source and a track close to the coastline that there will be warmer air overcoming this storm. Some models favor more snow/sleet, some favor more rain, but overall I foresee a big slopfest. I think it will end up being rain/sleet/snow transitioning and mixing together for most of the storm. South and East of 95 will be mostly/all rain. Along 95 including the Baltimore/Washington metros and surrounding areas will be in the slop area with a nasty mix of everything and the far north and west areas will be more likely to stay Sleet/Snow with maybe a little rain mixed in Saturday morning. Areas west of 95 I do think will end with a period of snow that may accumulate to an inch or so, that might be it for accumulation around the metros. I could see areas to the north and west picking up 2-5 inches of accumulation of snow and sleet. Timing will be the late evening Friday into the early afternoon of Saturday. Is there a chance of things changing at all? Theres always a chance. Always a chance theres something were just not seeing that may cause temperatures to be a tad cooler or warmer or dynamics maybe were not factoring in correctly that could change things. But at this moment this is how I see things playing out. I will make a final forecast tomorrow afternoon IF anything needs to be changed. *I know some of you snow lovers are going to be frustrated and upset. Trust me, in my mind I am too, but on this page I have to tell it like it is, not the way I want it to be. I know its a sucky feeling if this is indeed how it pans out. Feel free to express your frustration with mother nature out in the comments lol. And for those of you who hate snow...here you go... :/
Posted on: Thu, 22 Jan 2015 19:43:15 +0000
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