Amanda Paul, analyst at the Eu. Policy Centre: Minsk Group Has Become A Conflict Manager Rather Than A Solver News.Az interviews Amanda Paul, policy analyst at the European Policy Centre, Brussels. What are your thoughts on the recent incident when the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan shot down the Armenian Military Helicopter? This incident was very grave indeed and followed a serious upsurge of fighting in the summer. It has skyrocketed tensions; underlined once again that Nagorno-Karabakh is far from being a frozen conflict; shown that the ceasefire is increasingly fragile and that no real effort is being made on the ground to deescalate tensions or to rein-in provocative actions. It also illustrates the increased militarization of the ceasefire line over the last two decades. Combine this with the Russian military bases in Armenia and in the Georgian occupied regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and we are looking at the most heavily militarized, volatile and insecure region in Europe in a state of perpetual non-peace.. Armenian military leadership has threatened to give a tough response to Azerbaijan. Is there a threat of further escalation of the conflict? As we have seen from incidents that have happened in this past, Karabakh has bred a revenge (an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth) mentality which means it is very likely another serious incident may be around the corner. Indeed since the helicopter incident there has been on-going serious exchanges of fire and saber-rattling on and around the Line of Contact. Hence it is imperative that international diplomacy is intensified at this time. The US Government has expressed legitimate concern about the downing. U.S. State Department spokeswoman Jennifer Psaki said the incident was yet another reminder of the need to reduce tensions and respect cease-fire in the region. Some other countries and organizations have issued the same statements, but none of them mention the main problem which is causing victims on both sides – the presence of Armenian Military Forces on the occupied lands of Azerbaijan. Isn’t it a“blindness” and a double standard policy? Why can’t we have an international community that tackles the core of the problem and advocate the truth-approach in ensuring the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan? The International Community is always “concerned”, and always states that there is a need to reduce tensions and respect the ceasefire. This has now been going on for decades and the conflict is more deeply embedded than ever. Events in Ukraine have further exacerbated the situation creating a tenser and more volatile situation in and around the conflict zone, making all parties consolidate their positions further. The international community, including the US, try’s to maintain a balanced approach, avoiding statements that may perceived as favouring one of the sides as it could prove more detrimental than useful to the peace process. However, these wishy-washy and often empty statements are increasingly undermining the OSCE Minsk Group. What we need is robust, creative and proactive action and clear statements that call a spade-a-spade. Furthermore, more effort needs to be taken by Armenia and Azerbaijan to avoid such dangerous situations which igniting a full-scale war. Hence, why was such a massive military exercise, involving some 17 000 troops and a significant amount of military hardware, taking place at that time, in occupied Agdam, right next to the Line of Contact? More so because it came just days after a meeting in Paris, when both sides committed to resolving the conflict peacefully. The international community should call for an end to such large scale military exercises next to the Line of Contact. The Co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk group coming from three countries (the United States, Russia and France), as well the EU leaders have stated many times that the status-quo in Karabakh is unacceptable. What else should happen to push these countries to act finally in this direction and help to solve the problem? The Karabakh conflict acts as a handbrake on the security, development and prosperity of the whole region. There is a saying in English that you can bring a horse to water but you cannot make it drink. Ultimately the Minsk Group Co-chairs do not hold the key to a solution. This key is in the hands of Azerbaijan and Armenia who need to demonstrate the necessary political will, as well as, in my opinion, the Russian Federation. Moscow will never allow a deal that does not take into consideration its interests. This means we need a win-win-win outcome; otherwise, the chances of a deal are pretty slim, if not impossible. Such a win-win-win currently seems unobtainable. This means more frustration and an increased likelihood of power projection games and ceasefire violations. As for the Minsk Group, these days it has become a conflict manager rather than a solver, meaning it is basically focused on maintaining the ceasefire and the Armenian-Azerbaijani dialogue on the presidential and ministerial levels. Yet, as the recent incidents show, it is not even doing that. Friday 28 November 2014 L.H. News.Az
Posted on: Sat, 29 Nov 2014 21:47:40 +0000
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