An ‘Arab Spring’ uprising in Kenya? Nah! By SAM CHEGE | Monday, August 5 2013 Reports that some civil society activists and politicians are planning a Kenyan version of the Arab Spring raise intriguing questions. Can Kenya experience a national uprising and is that moment at hand? Social movements happen at unique moments in the history of nations. They are often the culmination of years of pent-up grievances that finally erupt into organised chaos that must be channelled towards a particular end. In fact, the moment of rapture can be triggered by something that looks minor. The current uprising in Brazil, for example, was triggered by bus fare increases but has since been sustained by other deeply entrenched grievances. There are critical lessons from recent uprisings in Egypt, Tunisia, Brazil, Libya and Yemen that would seem to indicate that Kenya will not be following in their footsteps any time soon. Why? First, Kenya has just had a general election and we have a new government in place. A social movement so soon after the elections will likely be seen as the work of an opposition that refuses to accept defeat and is looking for a back door to power. Second, the country is deeply divided as a result of the election. Both the opposition and government enjoy massive support and each could easily mobilise millions of supporters for protests and counter- protests. But that raises a dangerous prospect and could degenerate into internecine tribal violence. Third, in all the countries that have experienced uprisings, complaints about endemic corruption, widespread unemployment and high cost of living were the main factors cited by protesters. Kenya suffers from these same conditions but there is a twist to that observation. The Jubilee government has only been in office for three months and it would be disingenuous to blame it for these ills. In other words, it is too early in the game and the closets are still empty of the proverbial skeletons that administrations accumulate with time. Priming the masses In his classic primer on social change, Rules for Radicals, Saul Alinsky sets down some rules for those interested in organising for social change, including the need for education and communication as key ingredients in priming the masses. Alinsky reminds us that there is a difference between a realistic organiser and a rhetorical one. I suspect those currently talking about mass uprisings in Kenya fall in the latter category. It is also possible that some external forces, deeply upset by the election of President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto while facing crimes against humanity at the ICC, may be behind attempts to engineer an uprising. The problem is that the ICC question was settled at the ballot. Any external attempt to de-legitimise the government is likely to backfire and be seen as an attempt by foreign powers to impose a leader on Kenyans. An attempt to engineer a mass uprising at the moment is unlikely to succeed and will have unexpected consequences. But there are three pitfalls down the road that could send Kenyans in the streets in future. Kenya’s high cost of living cuts across party lines and any increase in the price of basic commodities could quickly trigger protests that could spiral out of control. The high unemployment among the youth is unsustainable. These young men and women are a potent army that can easily fuel a national uprising. Their future should be the number one priority. Finally, the way that elected leaders have gone about raising their salaries and allowances and the wasteful budgets emanating from county governments are perhaps the one issue that can create sustained mass protests in all 47 counties. Prof Chege teaches at Kansas State University, USA (samchege@aol).
Posted on: Mon, 05 Aug 2013 19:45:46 +0000
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