An Assessment of the Situation Today Gaza The people of Gaza remain under the harsh hand of Hamas, while the reconciliation agreement with the Palestinian Authority remains merely on paper. As a result, reconstruction in Gaza is limited, the economy is in shambles and there is barely grounds to expect improvement. Forty five percent of the employable population is without work. The Hamas regime is Gazas largest employer, with an overwhelming majority of its employees in the security forces. But Hamas has no money with which to pay their monthly salaries. Egypt, tired of repeated Hamas-supported attacks in Sinai, is carving out a kilometer-wide swath of non-mans land along the border with Gaza, razing homes and preparing to dig a deep water barrier that will obviate tunneling from Gaza into Egypt. Meanwhile, Egyptian forces continue to search out existing tunnels and destroy them. Soon Hamas will have no significant means of bringing in men, money and munitions. Such an eventuality will render Hamas all the more dependent on the border crossing into Israel. The West Bank Lone wolf attacks, encouraged by Hamas but opposed by the Palestinian Authority (PA) that rules in the West Bank, continue, sometimes with horrendous results. Most of the protests are limited to Jerusalem and its environs. Both Israeli and Palestinian Authority security is concerned, however, that continued frustration for lack of a political resolution will promote wider unrest, resulting in an uprising. Hamas is doing everything in its power to encourage such a process while working hard at establishing itself in the West Bank with a view to taking it over as it did in Gaza. Israel and the PA cooperate in an effort to stymie Hamas plans. At the same time, the PA has given up hope that Israel is sincerely open to a political resolution under terms that the Palestinians would be willing to consider. It is therefore seeking to force Israels hands by appeals to the international community. Israel is being increasingly isolated as a result. Oncoming elections will, to a significant extent, determine whether or not Israel will have a Government that will negotiate a resolution of the conflict in good faith, resulting either in an historic agreement or a reversal of present anti-Israel trends in Europe and the USA. As ever, the issue is whether or not both sides are willing to compromise in areas of vital interest one to another. So far, Palestinian demands would constitute the eventual destruction of Israel while Israeli would constitute the Palestinian State-to-be more of a rump State than a true political and economic entity. The Middle East ISIS has been pushed to the wall. Former successes have not been followed by new ones and armed opposition has blocked ISIS progress. The result could be one of the two: ongoing, endless bloodletting, or a vigorous drive to destroy ISIS. Exactly the same may be said on the conflict in Syria. Whatever may be the case, Iran stands to gain further influence. At the same time, sanctions plus the 50% decrease in the prices of oil have rendered the Iranian economy a devastating blow that even the lifting of sanctions will not undo. Iran has little with which to finance itself apart from oil. It imports most of its foods and other commodities and exports nothing much but carpets. Its reserves have been exhausted by the sanctions while unrest in the country continues to grow. It is only a matter of time until the country implodes. Saudi Arabia is now fighting a price war with the US, reducing oil prices so as to render US oil, most of which is obtained by costly fracking and horizontal drilling, unprofitable. The Saudi kingdom has sufficient reserves to engage the US for some time to come. Israel A weakened Netanyahu, despised and distrusted by many in his own party, in charge of a Government many of whose Ministers have tired of the Prime Ministers vacillating ways and persistent scare tactics, was forced to call elections a mere 20 months after having formed a government. The population in Israel is now divided between anyone but Bibi, we have no one else but Bibi and Oh, well, it just might be Bibi all over again. Benjamin Netanyahus reelection is most likely to result in more of the same. His demise as Prime Minister is likely to bring renewed peace negotiations and a meaningful difference in social and economic policies. Due to the issues at stake, the consequences of every round of elections in Israel are historic. Given the international atmosphere and Palestinian resolve, the implications which follow results of the next round are likely to be epochal, for good or for evil.
Posted on: Wed, 17 Dec 2014 10:43:59 +0000