An Extremely Reductionist List of Some of the Flaws Kahneman Has Identified in Human Judgment: Confusion between the “experiencing self” and the “remembering self.” For example, saying “that cell phone going off ruined the concert for me,” when in fact, it had ruined only your memory of the concert – not your experience of enjoyment before the cell phone rang. The focusing illusion: We can’t think about any factor that affects well being without distorting its importance. For example, people tend to believe that moving to California will make them happier, which turns out not to be true at all. We also tend to overestimate how much happier an increase in income will make us. Loss Aversion: People’s dislike of losing is about twice as strong as our enjoyment of winning. In practical terms, this means we’re twice as likely to switch insurance carriers if our policy’s rates go up than if a competitor’s rates go down. Optimism Bias: We tend to overestimate the likelihood of positive outcomes. Thus, most new restaurant owners think they will succeed, even in cities with a 65% failure rate. This tendency is in a kind of perpetual tug-of-war with loss aversion. Attribute Substitution: When faced with a complex problem, we tend to unconsciously simplify it. Our response, therefore, is often the solution to a related, but completely different problem. This is part of a general psychological tendency to avoid expending too much energy on decision making, and explains many forms of bias. What is racism, after all, besides a shortcut to judging another person’s intelligence or value?"
Posted on: Thu, 06 Jun 2013 19:27:18 +0000
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