An Iran-Russia Axis? What do two nations with a history of over 200 years of enmity and war do when they seek a change of discourse? Find a common enemy — real or imagined. For Russia and Iran, traditional foes since the 18th century, that common enemy is the United States, according to political circles in Moscow and Tehran. Russian President Vladimir Putin dwelt on the idea last month during a speech in Sochi. He said the United States regards “Russia, because of its military might, China because of its rising economic power and Iran because of its nuclear program” as “enemies.” On that basis, earlier this year, Putin tried to persuade China to transform the so-called Shanghai Group, set up to fight Islamic terrorism, into a fully-fledged military alliance that would also include Iran. When the Chinese wiggled out of the scheme, Putin focused his attention on “closer cooperation” with Tehran. Russia and Iran share a number of grievances against the United States and its allies in Europe and the Middle East. Both have been subjected to sanctions that have already hit their economies, compounding the effects of global recession. Both claim that the current fall in oil prices represents a conspiracy by Washington and its oil-rich Arab allies to push Russia and Iran, both heavily dependent on export revenues, to the wall. More important, perhaps, both are persuaded that the United States has long been targeting them for regime change via economic pressure combined with “velvet revolution” dissent. The worldview of influential circles in Moscow as in Tehran could be described as classically 19th century, with an emphasis on territory and the use of force. Russia is seeking a security perimeter in Eastern Europe, the Baltic States and Trans-Caucasus. Iran locates its own perimeter in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, with further “territorial depth” in Oman and Yemen. The two powers are also working together to counter US influence in Central Asia with a mixture of bullying and bribery. Analysts and policymakers in Moscow believe that Russia and Iran could use the remainder of Barack Obama’s presidency to create “irreversible realities” in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia. The phrase “fortochka Obama,” meaning “the Obama window of opportunity,” indicates the belief that America’s next president might not be as pliable as the current one.
Posted on: Thu, 25 Dec 2014 16:21:58 +0000
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