Analysis Border Attack Kills Hope for India-Pakistan Peace Talks The Prime Minister of Pakistan-administered Kashmir, Chaudhry Abdul Majeed (C), leads an anti-Indian protest rally in Kashmir, on August 12, 2013. (SAJJAD QAYYUM/AFP/Getty Images) Border Attack Kills Hope for India-Pakistan Peace Talks August 13, 2013 | | Asia and the Pacific Print Summary The deteriorating relationship between India and Pakistan took another hit last week when five Indian soldiers were killed on the Indian side of the disputed Kashmir border that divides the countries. Pakistan’s denial of involvement did not placate the Indian government. India is reluctant to resume peace talks unless Pakistan takes concrete steps to prosecute those responsible for the attack. Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif expressed regret over the attack and called for more communication between the countries, but he did not promise an investigation into the incident. India has not responded to Pakistan’s proposal to hold bilateral talks on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in September, and the breakdown in communication threatens another violent crisis. Background The Indian government was inconsistent in its response to the attack and did not directly blame Pakistan at first. Indian Defense Minister A.K. Antony told parliament that “the ambush was carried out by approximately 20 heavily armed terrorists along with persons dressed in Pakistan army uniforms,” the Wall Street Journal reported. Members of the opposition Hindu nationalist BJP party harshly criticized the government for not denouncing Pakistan. Indian army sources blamed Pakistan’s Border Action Team for the incident and for violating the 2003 cease-fire agreement. “We all know that nothing happens from Pakistan’s side of the border without the support, assistance, facilitation and often direct involvement of the Pakistan army,” Antony told India’s legislature, confirming a change in government position toward Pakistan. Pakistan has denied that its army was involved in the killings, and in return accused the Indian army of injuring two Pakistani soldiers in an “unprovoked” shootout that followed the attack. Peace negotiations between the two countries have been at a standstill since January, when an Indian soldier was beheaded and another one killed near the Kashmir border. India and Pakistan have gone to war twice over control for Kashmir since gaining independence from Britain in 1947. Sharif, who was recently elected in a landslide victory, expressed regret over the incident and a desire to improve Pakistan’s deteriorating relationship with India. “It is incumbent upon the leadership of both sides not to allow the situation to drift and to take steps to improve the atmosphere,” he said. Although Indian Foreign Minister Salman Khurshid said Sharif’s statement could be “an indication of change” in Pakistan’s position, he confirmed India’s intention to maintain a cautious approach toward Pakistan. “I am not sure if there was such an expression of regret in the past. However, as someone who has been hurt in the past, we have to exercise caution,” he said. Indian authorities had also expected Sharif to express Pakistan’s readiness to launch an investigation of the incident, the Times of India reported. Pakistan has proposed talks with India during the upcoming UN General Assembly session in New York in September. India has not yet responded but has shown bitterness toward Pakistan’s failure to prevent acts of violence and terrorism from its side of the border. India is demanding that Pakistan dismantle terrorist networks and effectively prosecute suspects in cross-border attacks. A terrorist attack launched from Pakistan killed 166 people in Mumbai in 2008, and Pakistan’s denials led the Indian government to freeze talks until a probe confirmed its involvement. Hafiz Saeed, who Indian authorities accused of plotting the Mumbai bombings and who has a $10 million U.S. bounty on his head, lives in Pakistan and freely led mass prayers last week to mark the end of Ramadan. Analysis Clashes between Hindus and Muslims are likely to continue in Kashmir, and could be intensified by the continuing machine-gun fire across the border. Progress is unlikely to be made until Pakistan’s government expresses its commitment to take control over the military, keep aggressors under control and prosecute suspected attackers. The latest skirmish could bring an abrupt end to India’s bid to normalize relations with Pakistan. The Indian government is preparing for next year’s general election and may take a tougher stance against Pakistan to attract voters. Thus India is unlikely to fully cooperate with Pakistan over renewed peace talks unless Pakistan takes concrete steps to investigate last week’s attack and hold the assailants accountable. If Pakistan moves on this within the next few weeks, India may agree to bilateral talks during the UN General Assembly in September. Another major issue that Pakistan must address to gain India’s trust is to extradite Hafiz Saeed to face charges over his alleged involvement in the 2008 Mumbai attacks. This is highly unlikely to be carried out despite several requests from India. A court in Lahore, Pakistan, dropped all charges against Saeed in 2009. The status of Kashmir is likely to remain unchanged in the foreseeable future, and both countries are likely to continue to fight for control of the disputed region. Pakistani rebel groups and army factions are likely to continue crossborder attacks to disrupt the peace process. Normalization of diplomatic relations between the two countries will be difficult to achieve under these conditions. Conclusion The relationship between India and Pakistan is unlikely to improve anytime soon, and the recent fatal attack on Indian soldiers could freeze peace talks for a long time. Sharif’s statement of regret over the attack will not be enough to satisfy India, which expects Pakistan to show more commitment to prosecuting suspects in the attack. The Indian government is also likely to take a tougher stand against Pakistan to secure votes in next year’s national elections. 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Posted on: Tue, 13 Aug 2013 16:29:17 +0000
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