Analysis of Mumbai races (Sunday, March 30, 2014) First race @ 1.30 pm The Open Spaces Trophy (Class V, 1-26; 1800m) As a favourite, Casino Jack ran such a pathetic race last time that most of those who lost money on that occasion must have vowed never to touch him again even with the longest barge pole in the world. But he was slow to jump and then, despite the riders frantic urging, refused to put his heart into the race. Those who can excuse him for that run may be rewarded now, especially as Gate Practice and a couple of spurts after that race suggest he is definitely fit for the fray this time. More importantly, he enjoys a unique distinction of being the only winner among non-winners, a factor that sometimes trumps all other angles. Of course, the younger Aromatica (last run indicated her first vicotry may be just round the corner) and Plated (finished 4-1/2 lengths ahead of Casino Jack in that race) will try to make his job difficult, but he should be able to catch the judges eye first. Note: If Casino Jack wins, that would be sort of a record, not for the horse, but for the jockey. I have never seen a jockey going blank for more than 30 rides, and then opening his account only to score a straight hat-trick (D K Ashish has won his last two rides—Negotiator & Double O Seven—on Thursday after going winless for 31 rides). Selections: Casino Jack 1, Aromatica 2, Plated 3. Recommended as bet: Casino Jack for WIN Second race @ 2 pm The Hornby Vellard Trophy (Class III, 40-66; 2000m) Coming down in class, Mountain Force should technically qualify as a contender, but I am discounting his chances because, after stalking the pace, he finished last in both his latest starts. So my view of this race boils down to a duel between Highlander & Cyclops, with Razeena, having run a surprisingly good race in last start after taking blinkers off, as a joker who can upset. Selections: Highlander 1, Cyclops 2, Razeena 3. Recommended as bet: None Third race @ 2.30 pm The Green Circle Foundation Trophy - Division II (Terms, for 3y, maidens; 1200m) Two first-timers (Fast Lady & Zabisco) and the two with some experience (Grand Gibraltar & Praelector) form a quartet that should most probably throw up the eventual winner. I feel Fast Lady can make a winning debut. Selections: Fast Lady 1, Grand Gibraltar 2, Zabisco 3. Recommended as bet: None Fourth race @ 3 pm The Mahalakshmi Trophy (Class II, 60-86; 1400m) Moon Shadow and Remember Me are the only two horses that have won at this class level and trip during the current season, so they obviously qualify as prime contenders. Caruso and Heat Wave, having won more than one race recently, should be considered as legimitate challengers to them. However, I would like to add one more horse to the contenders list, and that is Myla Rose. Showing gradual improvement with every run, Myla Rose ran a superb race last time over mile when he not only dictated pace, but despite being incovenienced by Trance, he held his own rather well. Now going over his optimum trip (all his three career victories have been over this trip), with little help from luck, he can stun his more fancied rivals. Selections: Myla Rose 1, Moon Shadow 2, Bombardier 3. Recommended as bet: None Fifth race @ 3.45 pm The Joggers & Walkers Trophy - Division II (Class IV, 20-46; 1000m) Beau Royale (the only last-outing winner in this set who outclassed his lower class rivals in what turned out to be a one-horse-race), Ice Gate (the only among them to have broken the 60-second barrier for this trip this season), Umarkot (whose run behind Blue Bay I found attractive enough to mark him as a follow horse over this trip), Capilano (who has taken a sizeable jump on the Dynamic Ratings scale in last run and is now entrusted to Sandesh) and Negredo (who is a year older than the four mentioned earlier, but for the first time this season, is going out with an in-form rookie with whom the stable has been firing very well this season) deserve attention. The joker in the pack? Well, since this is the first leg of the record-breaking Super Jackpot collection, listing a spoiler would be in order: Cut Diamond who, despite running green on debut, finished only 6 lengths behind winner, clocking a not-too-bad time of 1:00.60, now chooses to run again rather soon for a horse making late debut, and is due for the second lifetime start improvement. Selections: Umarkot 1, Beau Royale 2, Negredo 3. Upset: Ice Gate Recommended as bet: None Sixth race @ 4.15 pm The Green Circle Foundation Trophy - Division I (Terms, for 3y, maidens; 1200m) Mine Forever, a failed faovourite on debut, is the horse to beat. But with six of the nine juveniles making debut, there is a good chance the winner will emerge from this group. Two of them, Classic Moment and Spider Man have put in some decent work. The joker in the pack? The crown for the clown goes to Al Shamsheer (now BLINKERS off) who, in last run, was strongly fancied against Titiana (who recently had number of supporters in the Fillies Juvenile Million), stalked the pace before bursing a blood vessel and folded up to finish 15 lengths behind. Selections: Classic Moment 1, Mine Forever 2, Spider Man 3. Recommended as bet: None Seventh race @ 4.45 pm The Heritage of Mumbai Trophy (Class IV, 20-46; 1600m) Going by the make up, this race may turn out to be much more tricky than anticipated. Because there are four horses in the fray (Presence, The Other Song, Feast Of Love and Mambo Magic) who are last-outing winners, and weighing their chances over this trip can be a hair-splitting exercise. They all, however, will have to take on Dior who is resurfacing nearly seven months after her debut in a Million race at Pune, but who appears to have been prepared very well. The joker in the pack? Of course, Phelps (who else?)—the horse whom I added to my list of follow horses in Pune when I liked his fourth-place finish in a mile race, and who has repeatedly let me down, but will still grace my own super jackpot ticket tomorrow, only because it is the first time after that run that he is venturing over the mile. Selections: Presence 2, Dior 2, Mambo Magic 3. Upset: Phelps Recommended as bet: None Eighth race @ 5.15 pm The Tata Housing presents The Mahalakshmi 130 years Anniversary Turf Championship (Terms, 4y & over; 1800m) There is a good chance (the night odds are at least an hour away) the betting market may install An Acquired Taste and Ocean And Beyond, the two horses that will be renewing their rivalry at a third center since January this year (first Kolkata, then Hyderabad, and now Mumbai), will be installed as the first two favourites. Between the two, I would regard An Acquired Taste as currently being superior, based on their latest encounter at Hyderabad. However, Montreal, who had given proof of his remarkable versatility by winning over trips ranging from six to ten furlongs, was unbeaten on the racetrack until the last run which he lost narrowly in a three-way photo when going over a trip (2,400m) which was perhaps beyond his compass. Now going over nine furlongs, I will not be surprised if he exploits the bottom handicap to put it across his older rivals. The joker in the pack? Roswald, the last-outing winner over this trip whose fitness is not in doubt. Selections: Montreal 1, An Acquired Taste 2, Ocean And Beyond 3. Recommended as bet: None Ninth race @ 5.45 pm The Hooves & Horsepower Trophy (Terms, 3y, maidens; 1400m) Flashing Chieftain, who registered incredible improvement between his two runs, may prove too good for this set. That is, unless one of the four making debut turns out be somewhat out of ordinary. However, going by their preparation, that does not look like a strong possibility. Flashing Chieftain, therefore, may be considered a bet if you find the odds agreeable. The joker in the pack? Soul Centric whose superb spurts after the debut run raise hopes of a vastly improved show. Selections: Flashing Chieftain 1, Scent Of A Woman 2, Pepito 3. Recommended as bet: Flashing Chieftain for WIN Tenth race @ 6.15 pm The Joggers & Walkers Trophy - Division I (Class IV, 20-46; 1000m) The winner will most likely emerge from the quartet of Ice Age, Rocky Balboa, Hunt For Heads and Antartica Zone. I was extremely impressed by the last run of the last-named, and had it not been the last leg of a record-breaking super jackpot pool, I would have nomiated Antratica Zone as a possible banker. He surely deserves the status of a chance bet. The joker in the pack? (hopefully) None. Selections: Antartica Zone 1, Ice Age 2, Rocky Balboa 3. Recommended as bet: Antartica Zone for WIN
Posted on: Sun, 30 Mar 2014 05:43:56 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015