Analysis of Mumbai races (Thursday, March 6, 2014) First race @ 1.30 pm The Washington Irvine Plate - Division II (Class V, 1-26; 1400m) Run Like The Wind, who looked fit but did not make much of an impression in last start, perhaps on account of racing eight wide around the turn in the hands of DS Rathore, is now entrusted to P Trevor. Interestingly, he has now dropped below the rating mark at which he had won at Pune over this same trip. He is obviously the main contender. In all probability, he will be able to account for his conqueror Armel (race #137), but may face very serious challenge from Tuscania (ignore last run, she has been reasonably consistent this season, though still a maiden) or Silverville (showed some sign of form in last run, may improve further). Selections: Run Like The Wind 1, Tuscania 2, Armel 3. Recommended as bet: None Second race @ 2 pm The A. Hoyt Plate - Division II (For 5y & over, Class IV, 20-46; 1600m) The sparingly raced Wind Of The North has had feel of the track this season, and is now entrusted to Trevor. He may post a bold performance. Wish Upon A Star, who drifted due to a slipped saddle and dropped completely out of contention in last race, will also be fancied strongly in this weaker set. Winning Destiny is the one who, like outsider Queen, runs with an each way chance here. However, all of them will have to be at their best to tackle Glorious Opinion whose last run was extremely good, and who will now be ridden by Sandesh. In fact, Glorious Opinion, who narrowly lost his last two starts but finished between younger horses (4y olds) on both of those occasions, attracts as a chance bet in this race reserved for 5y & older horses if the odds are fairly decent. Selections: Glorious Opinion 1, Winning Destiny 2, Wish Upon A Star 3. Recommended as bet: Glorious Opinion for WIN Third race @ 2.30 pm The Washington Irvine Plate - Division I (Class V, 1-26; 1400m) Three four year olds, who once commanded fair amount of respect before they struggeld to show notable spark on the track, are all now fishing for their elusive maiden victory in the bottom class. They are Ghanghorr, Morals and Porto Banus. It is quite likely that the betting market may pin its hopes (and money) on this trio. I have a feeling Morals is a slightly better animal than the other two. However, they may be in for a surprise if seven-year-old Jens Glory finds herself in a galloping mood. Her last race behind Penny Lane was a good conditioning exercise, and she is now switching to seven furlongs after five consecutive races over the mile trip, during one of which she had flopped as an even money favourite. Selections: Morals 1, Ghanghorr 2, Porto Banus 3. Upset: Jens Glory Recommended as bet: None Fourth race @ 3 pm The Rose De Bahama Cup (Terms, for 3y, maidens; 1200m) Actually, I had found Lancelots debut run (when he fought and lost against Hudson Hawk) so good, I had thought I would blindly follow him in next outing. But I am now having second thoughts. No, there is nothing wrong with Lancelot, he will definitely run a very good race, but I am somewhat scared of the preparation of Assurances, the Narredu-trained juvenile whose latest spurt (March 3) suggests he may make a smashing winning debut. Selections: Lancelot 1, Assurances 2, Divine Wish 3. Recommended as bet: None Fifth race @ 3.30 pm The Flareon Plate (Class III, 40-66; 1400m) Beforememoryfades, who had posted a sensational victory over this trip and in this class (beating Sheer Class) before getting outclassed in the Indian 1000 Guineas over mile, will be fancied very strongly now that she returns to her winning trip. However, Carusos victory under identical conditons of class and trip was also extremely good, and especially, since it was after a long gap of over 4-1/2 months, I am tempted to give it more weightage. He is unlikely to go down without a fight, and may perhaps beat Beforememoryfades who will most likely end up being an overwhelming faovurite. Shygirl and Isadoro, by comparison, appear to be place prospects at best, though the first-named might flatter herself by going close to the eventual winner in the final half furlong. Selections: Caruso 1, Beforememoryfades 2, Shygirl 3. Recommended as bet: None Sixth race @ 4 pm The Radha Sigtia Trophy (Class II, 60-86; 2400m) At first glance, this looks like a straight and close contest between Wentworth and Reynolds, with New World as a possible spoiler. However, a closer look suggests that Reynolds, though a very fluent winner in last start who is bidding for a hat-trick, may find Wentworth a hard nut to crack because due to he is forced to take a two-class jump due to a huge penalty of 21 points. After all, Wentworth, before his Derby run where he clearly did not belong, had posted a fluent vicotry in this same class and over this same trip, so there is no reason why he cannot repeat that feat. Selections: Wentworth 1, Reynolds 2, New World 3. Recommended as bet: Wentworth for WIN Seventh race @ 4.30 pm The A. Hoyt Plate - Division I (For 5y & over, Class IV, 20-46; 1600m) After two good runs over mile, Rubens last run over shorter trip was extremely disappointing (and the subject of an inquiry too), but he may run a decent race again now that he is returning to the mile trip again. However, Asahi, who is returning to his winning class and trip after two good runs in higher class, appeals as a more formidable contender under the circumstances. Arusha, after a pathetic lung opener this season which was also the subject of inquiry, is resurfacing on the racetrack after 77 days. But she has been working well on the trial track for over two months now, and can use that fitness to stun the more fancied duo though she will be going over this trip for the first time, . Selections: Asahi 1, Rubens 2, Arusha 3. Recommended as bet: None Eighth race @ 5 pm The Angelique Plate (Class V, 1-26; 1200m) The winner will most likely emerge from amongst To The Moon, Dream Weaver and Mt Tianmen. Sindbaad, who is descending to the bottom class for the first time, can upset. Selections: To The Moon 1, Mt Tianmen 2, Dream Weaver 3. Upset: Sindbaad Recommended as bet: None Ninth race @ 5.30 pm The Dubinushka Plate - Division II (Class IV, 20-46; 1200m) So fluent was Wild Waves victory last time that he can expected to win again despite the sizeable penalty imposed on him. Going over the same trip and being handles by the same rider, Wild Waves may only need to be watchful of Saturday Affair who is showing improvement with every run, and has had a good conditioning exercise in last run when she effortlessly called the shots over longer trip before being folded up. Had it not been a crowded field of 20 runners, Wild Waves would perhaps have shaped as a good bet. Selections: Wild Waves 1, Saturday Affair 2, Umarkot 3. Recommended as bet: None Tenth race @ 6 pm The Dubinushka Plate - Division I (Class IV, 20-46; 1200m) The horse to beat here is Flying Eagle. Because if the rookie can get him off to a flying start, there is not a horse in this set who can match him for speed, he can just outpace them all and keep at bay up to the winning post. Having set pace in a Million race, and later made no show in a class III race, this class IV set of rivals who lack genuine speed (half of them have not been on the trial track since last run) may offer him a taylor-made opportunity to triumph. Selections: Flying Eagle 1, Grand Duke 2, Hunt For Heads 3.
Posted on: Thu, 06 Mar 2014 06:39:19 +0000
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