And it is time for another prediction - what will happen in Eastern Ukraine? Look for a precedent in Operation Storm by Croatian Army in 1995. Ukrainian wounded soldiers are already being treated by Croatia. The US supplied non-lethal military aid to Croatia as it is providing to Ukraine. They are probably talking about Oluja a lot as my strong suspicion is that there was US military advice in Oluja on how to conduct the operation. So what is likely to happen as Ukrainian Army regains its footing is that they will prepare for a blitz operation such as Oluja was. Everyone was taken by surprise by that one including people who were mobilized for it in the middle of the night. The plan has to be something that can be executed in 3-4 days before Russia would have a chance to mobilize significant immediate military intervention. By the end of Day 3 Ukrainian Army has to have control of more than 90% of the territory currently controlled by the separatists. Prior to the start of the operation both the separatist and Russia need to be lulled a bit by withdrawing heavy artillery and similar gestures. To reiterate, as always - I am not saying that this SHOULD happen or that it would be a good or a bad thing if it does - I am just saying that it will happen with no ethical judgements about it.
Posted on: Sun, 23 Nov 2014 23:56:19 +0000
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