And this weekends weather outlook !!!!!!!! FXUS63 KIND 191725 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 1225 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 252 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CENTRAL INDIANA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EVEN THOUGH UPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN COOL AGAIN BY MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM.../TODAY/ ISSUED AT 635 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 CLOUD DECK IS MOVING SOUTH FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS NEEDED THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...KEEPING THINGS DRY. LARGE HOLES HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CLOUD COVER THANKS TO SOME OF THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE HIGH. THE HOLES ROUGHLY FOLLOW THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. MODELS SHOW SOME OF THIS DRY AIR PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SOME OF THE HOLES ARE ALREADY CLOSING IN IOWA AT THE MOMENT. THUS SKY COVER FORECAST IS TOUGH TODAY AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA TODAY CLOSER TO SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE CLOUDS THERE INTACT. ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF ALLOWED FOR SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND MODEL MOISTURE FORECASTS. WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED...TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED TO AROUND 20 EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD START IN THESE AREAS...ALONG WITH CLOUDS INHIBITING TEMPERATURE RISES ELSEWHERE...SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS A LITTLE COLDER THAN MAV MOS WOULD SUGGEST MOST AREAS. && .SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/ ISSUED AT 252 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 FOCUS IS ON ANY THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS ON SKY COVER. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BULK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED WELL SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. THUS JUST EXPECT A THICKER CLOUD COVER TO MOVE IN ONCE AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD BUT NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES SATURDAY...BUT AT THE MOMENT FEEL THAT THE ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT DO NOT FEEL THAT ODDS ARE GOOD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION YET. THUS WILL JUST KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOT SURE THAT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL REALLY HAPPEN...BUT SOME HOLES COULD DEVELOP IN THE SKY COVER LIKE WHAT IS HAPPENING AT THE MOMENT. FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY STAYED COOLER THAN MAV MOS FOR HIGHS DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS STUCK WITH A BLEND. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISSUED AT 333 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 A MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEK...HIGHLIGHTED BY A POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SET TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS. LOTS TO TALK ABOUT THIS MORNING. STRONG RIDGING ALOFT SET TO DEVELOP OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED...AND THIS WILL PROMPT FALLING HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM EAST OF THE ROCKIES AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES. QUITE A BIT OF ENERGY COURTESY OF A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET PLOWING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SET TO DIVE INTO THE EXPANDING TROUGH AND LEAD TO PHASING WITH SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE SET TO TRACK OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH INTO THE REGION AS THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE APPROACH...WITH RAIN BECOMING LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SET TO ORGANIZE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET ENERGY LINKS UP WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM JET. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY GAIN A NEGATIVE TILT WITH RAPID CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE PHASING SURFACE WAVE...BUT THE KEY TAKEAWAY IS THAT MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING BULK OF THE ENSEMBLE RUNS ALL SHOW THE DEEPENING SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM FOR THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT THE DETAILS ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT AND LIKELY WILL NOT BE FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS UNTIL THE INTENSE UPPER JET ENERGY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PROPERLY SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. AT THIS POINT...HAVE LEANED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH FAVOR A FASTER PHASING...BUT ALL POSSIBILITIES REMAIN OPEN AT THIS EARLY STAGE UNTIL GREATER MODEL CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED. WITH ALL OF THIS BEING SAID...ANTICIPATE RAIN MIXING WITH THEN CHANGING TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FAR TOO EARLY TO TALK POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...BUT THESE LOOK RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS POINT. WIND IS LIKELY TO BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT FACTOR CONSIDERING THE PROGGED INTENSITY OF THE LOW TO SUB-980MB LEVELS AND POSSIBLY LOWER BY EARLY THURSDAY. EVEN IF SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT...WIND DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS COULD CREATE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES AT THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME...CHRISTMAS EVE INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY TUNED IN THE COMING DAYS. AND THIS MAY JUST BE THE START...AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN LIKELY PERSISTS BEYOND THE 7 DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1156 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER KHUF AND KBMG WILL COME TO AN END WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS PERSISTENT STRATUS FILTERS BACK INTO THE TAF SITES. AN INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND NORTHERLY. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
Posted on: Fri, 19 Dec 2014 18:20:40 +0000
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