Another example why one cannot trust the models past a few days out came up in the 12z mode runs today. Bear with me while I speak a little bit of weather-geek... The 00z run of the Euro this morning digs in a large trough with very cold air for next weekend, likely the first frost of the season, with the GFS having a similar look. *Side note: This is what I had talked about at the beginning of the month, a large trough digging in around the 20th of the month. Check the "Long Range Forecasting" note for more details. Now, this afternoon, things have changed quite a bit. The 12z Euro shows an intense low pressure system spinning up in western MN. The GFS shows nothing like that occurring with a much more progressive trough, similar to its 00z run. My thoughts on all of this are as follows: I believe the trough will be digging in similar to what the Euro shows due to the negative NAO that will be developing. The GFS seems too progressive to me. This also lines up very well with the Bering Sea rule discussed in my long range forecasting note. The question now is going to be just how much does this dig in, and does the upper-level low close off quickly, resulting in an intense storm system somewhere in the area? Regardless of the storm, I do see another well-below average airmass for next weekend. In fact, I still stick to what I said at the beginning of September and say next weekend or the following week will likely be the first widespread frost of the season. Stay tuned!
Posted on: Sat, 14 Sep 2013 20:54:16 +0000
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