Another very potent arctic airmass is racing its way toward texas and it is currently located across central Oklahoma. Initially strong winds out of the north will be the main hazard and the NWS will likely have to issue a Wind Advisory for tomorrow as a strong pressure gradient is evident with this frigid airmass. Dewpoints in the single digits across the northern plains gives an idea of just how dry the airmass coming in will also be. As a result temps tomorrow will be much cooler and most highs will be reached early in the day as cold air advection really takes hold and temps will likely hold steady and then fall in to the 40s during the day. Immediately following the frontal passage overrunning will commence and clouds will likely rapidly fill the skies and this will also limit insolation (solar heating). By tomorrow evening (monday night) the arctic airmass will be firmly entrenched across the region and all eyes will then focus to an upper level low pressure system moving in from the west. This low pressure system represents cold air aloft as well a source of ascent (synoptic lift) and will also aid in the transport of subtropical moisture from the pacific on top of the already entrenched arctic airmass. Unfortunately the track and timing of this low and embeeded short waves are still in question and therefore confidence in amounts and types of winter precipitation are still up in the air. Although there are some similiarites to last week there are indeed subtle differences. For one the source of lift will be synoptic in nature rather than isentropic lifting by itself and thus a scattered pattern to the precip rather than stratiform will likely occur, also due to the thermodynamic processes associated with winter upper lows dynamical cooling will be more of a factor rather than purely wet bulb and evaporational cooling effects therefore, the forecast is more complicated. Please check back tomorrow for an update as by then I hope to have a much better idea of what to expect in terms of types and amounts. Stay warm out there folks!
Posted on: Mon, 27 Jan 2014 05:09:31 +0000
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