As Sunday approaches, most of the forecasts Ive looked at are calling for a mostly rain event. Were still 5 days out, and the wheelhouse of reliable forecasting doesnt really begin until about 4 days out... however, it is safe to say that for most of the day Sunday, this will indeed be a rain event. Questions still remain... While we can count on a good rain event for most of the day Sunday, one of big questions is going to be just how warm it will get the day of the 1st. At the moment, most outlooks are calling for upper 40s in terms of Highs for Sunday. Thats also correct or close enough to it. Where it matters is if it is shy of those expected temps by just a few degrees. Why? A thick blanket of clouds will be in the area for much of that day... this will act like a blanket that will lock in the warmth instead of that warmth radiating out into space. This will also mean that temps will stay too warm to produce snow for most of the time moisture is in the area. Should the High be a few degrees colder though, then the Low, currently looking to be around 34, could be a lower temp or arrive sooner at temps cold enough to snow or both. This means the tail end of the moisture is what we are wanting to watch now... with the High temp Sunday, and the speed of decline of temps bringing us to our Low, Sunday night/Monday morning in mind. Its worth it to note, some models still show good snow Monday morning. The Euros latest run shows 2-4 in the southern valley, and higher totals elsewhere. Its hard to buy into this model running the snow to that extent... Still, its also worth it to keep in mind that the Euro has been a bit better than other weather models at modelling winter weather in the 4 and 5 day range. So, what does this mean? Mostly it means rain... probably close to 3/4 worth. But, also it means we will have to keep watching Monday morning. Odds are, this is going to be one of those events where for a few hours we will be riding the line between temps-too-warm/cold-enough-for-snow and also timing of the moisture coinciding with those temps which *might* late in the event be cold enough for snow. As we know more, well be sure to post it here. ~SM
Posted on: Tue, 27 Jan 2015 23:55:48 +0000