Asia Friday Morning Open - USD Crashed Massive volatility in FX - TopicsExpress

Asia Friday Morning Open - USD Crashed Massive volatility in FX market, and more to come on NFP Nikkei futures fall as much as 4% but recovered now -1.33% (o4:55 GMT) The big flows started yesterday during Asian trade with heavy AUD selling in what turned out to be a big EUR/AUD buy order mixed in with heavy liquidation of long AUD/JPY exposure from asset managers. Dealers say that volumes were quite massive at times and they expect to see more of the same over coming days. It’s NFP Friday today, which is always a volatile time, and we can expect plenty of movement in scared markets. Thankfully the Asian economic calendar looks quite bare so we don’t have to worry about that at least. USD/JPY was the big mover, falling by over 3% at one stage during overnight trade as it fell below 96.00 during the panic. Technical resistance levels start at 97.60/98.00 and the risk would seem to be heavily skewed to the downside. EUR/JPY also came in for some heavy flows after trailing stops were triggered below 129.00. There is decent resistance now at the 129.00 breakdown level and again the risk is heavily skewed to the downside as this liquidation picks up pace. EUR/USD was buffeted somewhat in both directions, with heavy EUR/AUD buying as well as anti-USD sentiment driving it higher but heavy selling in EUR/JPY offset the gains in part. The trend is now bullish in the short-term but we can expect plenty of swings as cross flows hit the market. AUD/USD was sold very heavily yesterday in Asia due to the big cross flows mentioned above. It rebounded strongly once USD/JPY went into free-fall and USD sentiment improved. There is strong medium-term support at .9400 and I would not be surprised to see a short-term .9400/.9750 volatile holding range. Cable looks to have a base in place now above 1.5150 and the break above 1.5600 confirms this. Yet I would not chase this move higher as GBP/JPY selling will become an important factor. Buying big dips is the obvious play here. USD/CHF is following the USD/JPY lead and the Swiss Franc is not being affected by asset manager positional liquidation.

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