August 15, 2014: Welcome to the weekend. I hope you enjoyed the AMAZING week of below normal temperatures. We have some active weather ahead of us. Still some questions on exact timing of precipitation. That is not all that unusual this time of the year. During the spring and winter months we typically have strong cold fronts with one line of storms. It is in and out - we are done. But, in the summer months systems tend to move a little slower. Precipitation often comes in waves. That should be the case over the coming 7 days. We have a complex of showers and thunderstorms moving through northeast Missouri this evening. This area of showers and thunderstorms will push southeast overnight (Friday night). I believe the bulk of the rain will weaken as it pushes into southern Illinois. There will probably be a few showers over our northern counties. The bulk of the precipitation, however, should stay to the north and west of far southern Illinois and western Kentucky. On Saturday the atmosphere will warm up and moisten up. This will occur ahead of an area of low pressure that will push towards our region on Saturday night and Sunday. There are some questions on whether or not a few showers and thunderstorms will occur during the morning hours. Perhaps the best chance of this, if it were to occur, would be closer to Perryville, Missouri over towards Mt Vernon, Illinois. Perhaps a county or so south of there, as well. For the most part, I believe most of Saturday will be dry over far southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase on Saturday night into Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Would not be surprised if some places pick up 1-2. Typically this time of the year you have thunderstorms that train over the same counties. This can cause enhanced rainfall totals. Same as the last event. Of course, some places will pick up a lot less than that. Again, same as the last event. The atmosphere will be more unstable on Sunday into Sunday afternoon. This means that a few of the thunderstorms could produce small hail and gusty winds. The overall severe weather threat is minimal. Not zero, but it is minimal. I will monitor and update if it appears activity might be a bit more organized (the severe weather threat, that is). Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue into Sunday night and Monday morning. Next week will bring summer conditions. I guess we can handle that. We have had so much nice weather this summer (temperature wise, at least). There will be an almost daily chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Perhaps more hit and miss Tuesday into Thursday. Whether an organized complex of thunderstorms will develop during that period of time is questionable. This continues to be one part of the forecast that will need to be fine tuned. Bottom line...plan on showers and thunderstorms on Saturday night into Sunday night. Locally heavy downpours possible. Cloud to ground lightning. Small risk for a few reports of severe weather (winds greater than 60 mph and/or quarter size hail or larger). Forecast details... Saturday - Small chance for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms - mainly during the morning hours. Mainly over the north and northwest portions of our region (Perryville, MO towards McLeansboro, IL - perhaps a county south of there, as well). Otherwise, quite a few clouds. Warmer and more humid. High temperatures in the upper 80s. Southwest winds at 10 mph. Saturday night - Cloudy during the evening. An increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms as the night wears on. Warmer and more humid. Overnight lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s Southwest winds at 10 mph. Sunday - A good chance for thunderstorms. A few storms could produce gusty winds. Locally heavy rain possible. High temperatures in the middle to upper 80s. Southerly winds at 10-15 mph. Sunday night - Showers and thunderstorms likely. Low temperatures in the upper 60s. Southwest winds at 10 mph. Monday - A chance for a few thunderstorms. High temperatures in the upper 80s. South winds at 10 mph. Radars weatherobservatory/weather-radar.htm
Posted on: Sat, 16 Aug 2014 03:43:11 +0000
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