BESIGYE, MBABAZI, KADAGA, MAO, MUNTU, LUKWAGO, MAFABI, OTUNU (COMBINED IN A COALITION AGAINST MUSEVENI) WOULD GET A PALTRY 29% OF THE VOTE – MONITOR POLL ================================================== Democracy and conscience politics is a scientific undertaking. And with opinion polling and galloping, human behavior in electioneering is now predicted with precision. In 2011, Afrobarometer did a scientific poll that gave President Museveni 66%. He got 68% in that election. President Museveni and NRM took results of the poll seriously, engaged gear number five and kept the momentum. To the contrary, and in bid to discredit the Afrobarometer opinion poll findings that put President Yoweri Museveni in the lead, an opposition party (FDC) commissioned its own survey but was disappointed with the results. Their own poll was in convergence with Afrobarometer poll. Instead of rolling up their sleeves and working hard to push support in their favor, they spent time throwing negative and self-serving salvos at the pollsters and President Museveni! They said the poll was inaccurate. They questioned the methodology, intonation of poll questions etc– to even suggest that the Polling agency was paid by President Museveni! Real polling day arrived – and they lost by the same margin determined by the poll. And across all electoral positions, President Museveni and NRM basked in a landslide. In effect, the election delivered results where NRM comprises a majority of seats in parliament 68% excluding 10 seats reserved for representatives of the Uganda People’s Defense Force (UPDF) and 10 seats reserved for ex-officio members; a majority of district chairpersons 77%, and a majority of sub-county chairpersons 71%. A large percentage of the remaining seats at all levels are held by independents. Combined, the six opposition parties hold 19% of seats in Parliament. In 2014, Research World International (RWI) in collaboration with Daily Monitor also did a poll where 75% of respondents stated they would likely vote for the same party as they voted for in the previous election if the election was held that day. The aftermath commentary was predictable. Many in the Opposition chose the easy and convenient way of dismissing the poll. The had learnt and forgotten nothing. I think Uganda’s opposition seems to have mobilized unrealistic anger around themselves and put on hazy lenses to visualize the pulse of wider population and politics in Uganda. They have thrown away the barometer to measure the temperatures of the country. Now, Monitor today, January 12, 2015, published a poll that put President Musevei at 57%, Kizza Besigye at 8%, Amama Mbabazi at 6%, Rebecca Kadaga at 5%, Nobert Mao at 3%, Mugisha Munutu at 2% Erias Lukwago at 2%, Nandala Mafabi at 2% and Olara Otunu at a paltry 1%. The percentage difference between President Museveni and the second contender Kizza Besigye is a whopping 49%. The poll also shows that even if Besigye, Mbabazi, Kadaga, Mao, Muntu, Lukwago, Nandala Mafabi, Otunu formed a coalition or alliance- they would only garner 29%; Museveni defeats all of them combined hands down with a margin of 28%. Now listen; you will hear opposition and its adherents making similar rehearsed arguments of incumbency, poll inaccuracy, intimidation, bribery and all that escapism that has come to dominate opposition politics in Uganda. The opposition seeks to objectify citizens of Uganda by presenting them as a population that have no capacity to discern right from wrong- as a population that is driven by patronage, less ambition in its expectations, illiterate, unsophisticated etc. Yet the opposition and its adherents are offshoots of the population they seek to downgrade. What a contradiction? Why is the opposition keen to abuse ingenuity of Ugandans? A clever opposition would appreciate the science of empirical polling and engage in immersion and self-reflection appraisals to deal with poll numbers and come out stronger. But since 2011 and the subsequent polls – they have not done it and they will not do it. They will continue on the brazen and abusive offensive against President Museveni instead of presenting alternative agenda to the population and mobilizing citizenry around it. They will continue to do same things and expect a different result! From the foregoing, the 2016 election is settled- make no mistake.
Posted on: Mon, 12 Jan 2015 08:49:35 +0000