BREAKING: Warren Evans Leads Wayne County Executive Poll, Incumbent Bob Ficano Dead Last, with No Viable Path to Victory Thursday, June 5, 2014, 7:00 a.m. Former Wayne County Sheriff Warren Evans tops a five-way Democratic primary poll for Wayne County Executive obtained by Inside Michigan Politics. But the biggest news is the pollsters flat-out declaration that the re-election campaign of the offices current occupant, Bob Ficano, is dead on arrival. The survey was done for the Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters and Millwrights by Washington, D.C.-based Democratic pollster Greenberg Quinlan Rosner. The union has not yet endorsed in the race. Ficano came in dead last in the poll (10%) amid numerous scandals and an FBI investigation of his office. While pollsters noted in a memo that Ficano has the best name ID, voters have a negative view of him by a more than 4:1 ratio, making him hopelessly underwater. The scandals in Ficanos administration are deal-breakers for a majority of voters, leaving him with little room to grow and no viable path to victory, the memo stated. Evans pulled in 29% support, more than doubling the 14% runner-up Westland Mayor Bill Wild won. Evans is the clear frontrunner, the pollsters wrote, enjoying built-in advantages as the only African-American and Detroiter in the race, which will be difficult to overcome. White voters only make up 37% of the electorate, the memo stated. To beat Evans, one of the other candidates would not only need to consolidate [white] voters but chip into the frontrunners support with African-Americans. Something that would likely require significantly out-communicating the rest of the field, the pollsters wrote. State Rep. Phil Cavanaugh (D-Redford Twp.) wasnt far behind in the field with 13%, followed by Wayne County Commissioner Kevin McNamara at 12%. The pollsters noted the top four candidates mostly start out with relatively lukewarm profiles, although Evanss polls the strongest. But they concluded that Wild could join Evans as a frontrunner. He has the best chance of consolidating the out-county vote, thanks to his fundraising ability and profile as a businessman. The poll also tested positive messages and negative attacks on each candidate. The numbers didnt move much -- although, notably, Ficano slid 3 points down to 7%. Evans ended up where he started at 29%, Wild moved up to 19%, Cavanaugh edged up to 15% and McNamara slipped to 11%. The poll found that Evanss decades-long record in law enforcement resonated well, but his 2010 firing as Detroit police chief was a cause of concern. Wilds record running a business and balancing city budgets resonated far better with white voters than African-Americans and those outside Detroit than Detroiters. Attacks on him as a self-promoter with questionable ethics polled weakly. Cavanaughs biography as a former county commissioner was viewed positively, but it failed to register the intensity that Wilds or Evanss backgrounds did, the pollsters wrote. McNamaras bio inspired little excitement, according to pollsters, and he seems least likely to gain traction besides Ficano. The poll of 400 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted May 15 through 19. #wcw4wce #WarrenCEvans
Posted on: Thu, 05 Jun 2014 12:45:55 +0000
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